Gold in the golden minute: rebound from 4,500 or just a rest to recharge

What Happened in the Gold Price Content

The precious metals market this morning signals a clear downward correction, with XAUUSD testing the $4,450 per ounce level after previously attempting to break the $4,500 resistance. Such movement is not unusual in the market; gold often consolidates after a strong rally. However, this time, there are underlying deep factors at play.

Hidden Conflicts in Economic Figures

According to basic principles, the US economic signals seem positive for gold. The JOLTS job openings data shows a decrease to 7.15 million, the lowest since March 2021. The private sector ADP report also indicates only 41,000 new jobs, below expectations.

But that’s not the whole story. In fact, the ISM Services PMI surged to 54.4 in December, reflecting that the US service sector is still expanding strongly. The employment index in services also grew for the first time in 7 months. Dollar speculators find themselves at a crossroads—bad versus good numbers collide, prompting investors to take profits beforehand.

Federal Funds and Portfolio Rebalancing

This is a crucial point many overlook. Last year, gold generated a 67% return, outperforming the 150% return of large-cap index funds. These funds need to revert to their original allocations. Their fixed rule is to sell assets with good gains to buy lagging assets.

According to Goldman Sachs’ assessment, massive selling—potentially up to $5.5 billion—may have flowed out of the gold market due to this rebalancing. Another $5 billion exited the money market. These are outflows not based on fundamentals but driven by mechanical portfolio adjustments—structures indifferent to good or bad news.

Warning signals also come from (Silver). A double-top reversal candlestick pattern has appeared. If March futures close below $69.255, further selling pressure may follow. Money often leads gold, so attention must be paid to this support level.

Chart Signals and Formation

On the 4-hour chart, the current price is $4,447. The latest candlestick formed a base near the short-term EMA at around $4,433, which coincides with psychological support and the Fibonacci 127.2% level.

The Stochastic RSI has rapidly fallen from the overbought zone, indicating a momentum release to the upside. This is a good sign for trend followers. RSI has dipped below 60 slightly; the market remains in a zone where it could either deepen its correction or bounce back quickly.

If the 4-hour candlestick closes above $4,433–$4,440 and shows a Rejection Wick below, it signals that buyers are waiting in force. The price could attack again at $4,480, with the next target at $4,551, the Fibonacci 161.8%.

If selling intensifies and breaks below $4,433 clearly, the next target is the middle channel line or the previous support at $4,342, supported by the mid-term EMA.

Long-term Outlook: The Gold View Remains Shadowed

Although short-term movements are volatile, the long-term picture remains unchanged. Gold’s role has shifted from merely hedging inflation to becoming a core asset countering geopolitical instability. China continues to buy; last month, they added 30,000 ounces for 14 consecutive months. The fundamental support remains strong.

Leading analysts still target $5,000 by 2026, provided that Non-farm Payrolls data this Friday follow the pattern of ADP and JOLTS. The Fed will feel the pressure and cut rates when portfolio adjustments pause. Gold is ready to rebound.

Key Content Today

Watch Support: 4,433 - 4,400 - 4,342 dollars

Watch Resistance: 4,480 - 4,520 - 4,551 dollars

The golden moment in this market is not only about short-term signals but also global signals. Gold is evolving into a real-value asset, regardless of whether the market is quiet or roaring.