Shiba Inu Prediction: Can the 30% surge be sustainable against whale selling pressure?

Shiba Inu is currently trading at $0.00000862 after breaking out of a seven-month-long downtrend channel with a notable 30% surge in the first week of 2026. However, predictions about the sustainability of this rally remain uncertain as conflicting signals emerge from multiple fronts.

Whales Moving Tokens: Warning Signs or Normal Activity?

Net outflows of $332,790 recorded on January 10 indicate that some investors may be taking advantage of the price increase to exit positions. More concerning is the increase in large transactions over $100,000 by 111% in early January, following 406 whale transactions in December transferring 1.06 trillion SHIB to exchanges.

When large investors move tokens during strong price movements, it often signals distribution rather than accumulation. Wallet concentration further complicates the picture: 62.65% of SHIB supply is held in large wallets, with a single address holding about 41% worth $3.3 billion. This structure creates a two-sided scenario—small trades can amplify price volatility.

Technical Indicators: Opportunity or Trap?

The future of SHIB’s price heavily depends on key technical levels. Currently, SHIB trades between the 50-day EMA ($0.00000832) and the 100-day EMA ($0.00000912), forming a neutral zone.

To confirm a trend reversal, buyers need to regain the $0.00000912 level and challenge the 200-day EMA at $0.00001056. However, if the $0.00000832 support is lost, the breakout will be invalidated, with the next support at the Supertrend indicator at $0.00000754.

On the 2-hour timeframe, SHIB is consolidating near the middle Bollinger Band at $0.00000868. The Parabolic SAR indicator registers at $0.00000878. If the price closes above this level, the indicator will flip to an uptrend, signaling buyers are defending the structure. Conversely, if it drops below $0.00000856, the price could slide back to the lower Bollinger Band.

Volume and Sentiment: Lack of Confirmation

Despite the 30% increase, the 24-hour trading volume is only $106.5 million, significantly lower than typical levels seen during sustainable trend changes. For comparison, previous SHIB rallies in 2024 saw volumes exceeding $500 million.

Market sentiment is also not optimistic. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting trader fear rather than the greed usually associated with meme coin rallies. The combination of low volume and negative sentiment suggests retail investors have not strongly participated in this rally.

Burn Activity: Efforts Still Insufficient

On January 1, the SHIB burn rate surged by 10,728.80% within 24 hours, with approximately $172 million SHIB sent to irrecoverable wallets. However, subsequent days saw sharp reversals in burn activity, sometimes decreasing by 17% despite rising prices.

The community-led burn mechanism remains a key part of SHIB’s deflationary strategy, but these large percentage increases translate into relatively modest reductions given the total circulating supply of 589 trillion tokens. The lack of sustained momentum after the January 1 spike indicates that coordinated efforts have yet to maintain the necessary intensity.

Upside Scenarios and Downside Risks

Optimistic scenario: If SHIB recovers the $0.00000912 level accompanied by increased volume and the Fear & Greed Index surpasses 50, the breakout will gain more credibility. The initial target would be $0.00001056, with room to extend gains toward $0.00001200 if bullish momentum persists.

Pessimistic scenario: If the price falls below $0.00000832 and whale outflows intensify, the breakout from the downtrend channel will fail. The support zone at $0.00000754 could be breached, with a deeper decline toward $0.00000700 if selling pressure increases.

The daily chart structure has improved, but the lack of follow-through momentum indicates the bulls have not yet gained full control. Price needs to consolidate above the 50-day EMA before testing higher resistance levels. Near-term forecasts depend on whether technical indicators confirm and volume resumes growth.