Bitcoin at a crossroads: Analysts debate whether $95,000 is the key to the next move

Uncertainty Dominates Bitcoin Price in 2026

Two weeks before the start of 2026, Bitcoin continues to display sideways behavior that frustrates bullish investors. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading around $96,87K, with only marginal gains since the beginning of the year. The main obstacle it faces is the $95,000 resistance, a level that has proven to be virtually impenetrable since last October’s collapse.

Multiple external factors are putting pressure on market action. Uncertainty over Washington tariffs, expected changes in the Federal Reserve presidency, and pending regulatory decisions on crypto have plunged Bitcoin into a state of “cautious waiting.” The US Supreme Court has not yet issued its verdict on the legality of the tariffs implemented, keeping traders in a defensive stance.

Experts Recognize the Pause as a Consolidation Opportunity

According to Brian Vieten, research analyst at Siebert Financial, the current slowdown should be interpreted constructively. “Bitcoin is accumulating around $90,000 after an extended period of selling pressure caused by fears of tax loss harvesting and potential index exclusions,” he explained. Vieten adds that these risks have already been dismissed, significantly easing selling pressure.

Jake Ostrovskis, OTC operations chief at Wintermute, characterizes the movement as “a typical consolidation following an explosive rally.” Although better-than-expected economic data have reduced the chances of new interest rate cuts, Ostrovskis maintains that a sustained break above $95,000 could reignite systematic buying and push Bitcoin’s price back to five-figure levels.

Macroeconomics and Interest Rates Halt Bullish Momentum

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, offers a more pessimistic short-term outlook. Stronger-than-expected economic indicators are reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. However, Butterfill does not rule out a bullish scenario later in the year, suggesting that $200,000 could be achievable before the end of 2026.

What is the Next Critical Level?

The consensus among analysts suggests that Bitcoin’s price will remain volatile as long as it stays below $95,000. This level is crucial: a sustained close above it would represent a technical breakout that could trigger new buying and reactivate momentum toward the all-time highs near $126,000 recorded in October.

Meanwhile, MSCI’s filing regarding its plan to exclude treasury companies of digital assets from its indices has alleviated significant pressure. The absence of this regulatory risk has helped stabilize sentiment, although investors continue to act cautiously until there is greater clarity on the global macroeconomic agenda and crypto policies in the US.