Is Cardano's Bull Run Hitting A Wall? Momentum Running Out of Steam as $0.39-$0.43 Range Looms

Cardano has delivered solid gains recently, but don’t mistake movement for strength. Current price action at $0.41 shows the rally is cooling faster than many expect. While ADA has climbed 4.83% over the past week and gained another 1.85% today, the underlying momentum tells a cautious story—one that points toward consolidation rather than breakout territory.

The Confusing Signal: Price Up, But Energy Fading

The immediate price picture looks encouraging on the surface. A 21% weekly surge supported by uptrend structures would normally suggest more gains ahead. However, zooming into the technical details reveals a disconnect between price movement and actual buying conviction.

On the 12-hour timeframe, a critical metric is flashing a warning sign. The Relative Strength Index (RSI)—which tracks how aggressively an asset is trading—has been trending higher even as Cardano price stalled and declined between early December and early January. This mismatch is known as a hidden bearish divergence. It signals momentum is weakening, not strengthening. The price is still grinding higher, but with noticeably less aggressive buying power behind it.

Think of it like climbing a hill that’s getting steeper: you’re moving forward, but you’re getting more tired with each step.

What The Exponential Moving Averages Are Signaling

The one bullish bright spot remains the exponential moving average (EMA) setup. The 20-period EMA is approaching a crossover with the 50-period EMA, a traditional signal that mid-term uptrends can maintain their footing. If this cross happens cleanly, it provides some confidence that the broader trend structure remains intact.

But this signal alone doesn’t guarantee sustained rally. It’s one piece of a much larger puzzle, and right now, other pieces don’t align perfectly.

On-Chain Evidence Suggests Patience, Not Panic

One reason a sharper selloff hasn’t occurred yet lies in holder behavior. Spent Coins Age Bands—a metric tracking how much ADA is being moved around—reveals something interesting: both short-term traders and multi-year holders have dramatically reduced their transaction activity.

Short-term traders cut their spending by 87% in a single day, dropping from roughly 58.7 million ADA to just 4.1 million ADA. Long-term holders saw an even steeper decline of 93%, from 3 million ADA down to 382,000 ADA. This isn’t panic selling. Instead, it looks like informed patience—holders are waiting for clearer directional signals before making moves.

When coins stop moving around, range-bound trading typically follows. Markets need activity to generate volatility. With both cohorts taking a step back, the odds favor consolidation over capitulation.

Where To Watch For Confirmation or Breakdown

Price levels now become the deciding factor. The Cardano rally maintains its bullish structure as long as the asset stays above $0.39. This near-term floor acts as the last line of defense for bulls. A close beneath it would open the door to a deeper pullback toward $0.33.

On the other side, $0.43 represents the key resistance zone. A decisive break and sustained hold above this level would suggest momentum is resetting higher. If that happens, ADA could challenge $0.48 as the next target, with $0.60 becoming realistic for patient bulls if the trend genuinely accelerates.

Until one of these pivotal levels breaks decisively, the most probable scenario is a sideways consolidation box between $0.39 and $0.43—roughly a 9% trading range. This fits all the available signals: the trend remains directionally higher, holders are calm and holding, but the immediate energy pushing prices forward has visibly diminished.

The next move depends on whether momentum can rebuild within this zone or if patience gives way to directional conviction again.