Piper Sandler Affirms $500 Tesla Target After In-Depth Factory Assessment of FSD v14 Capabilities

After an intensive 75-minute factory visit and hands-on evaluation of Tesla’s latest autonomous driving system, Piper Sandler analysts have reaffirmed their $500 price target for TSLA. The research team toured Tesla’s Fremont facility and engaged directly with company leadership on autonomy breakthroughs, in-house chip development, and robotaxi deployment strategy.

First-Hand Observations Signal FSD v14 Maturity

The demonstration impressed the analyst team, particularly regarding perception accuracy and obstacle management during the robotaxi test drive. Ride quality in various driving scenarios—especially urban navigation—demonstrated noticeable refinement compared to earlier iterations.

Critical Technical Issues Showing Signs of Resolution

Tesla released FSD v14.2 to its Early Access Program, targeting a significant source of friction in previous versions. The brake stabbing problem represented a major pain point that emerged most prominently at intersections and four-way stops, where the vehicle would struggle with hesitation timing as cross-traffic approached. Early testers reported that v14.2 substantially addressed this challenge, with one driver completing a 62-minute session without experiencing the problematic brake behavior.

Additionally, the driver monitoring system in v14.2 appears less restrictive, aligning with Elon Musk’s stated intention to permit texting functionality during autonomous operation in the coming months. Musk hinted that v14.3 will deliver “the last big piece of the puzzle,” though he offered no specific launch window.

Analyst Price Targets Paint a Complex Picture

Piper Sandler’s target sits within a spectrum of Wall Street perspectives. Wedbush maintains the most bullish stance at $600, citing autonomous driving progress. TD Cowen backs a $509 target with a Buy rating, emphasizing FSD development velocity and robotaxi demonstrations in Austin. Stifel recently elevated its target to $508 per share, focusing on the robotaxi program’s trajectory and rapid software iterations.

On the cautious end, HSBC holds a Reduce rating with a $131 target, questioning whether Tesla’s current valuation reflects fundamental earnings capacity rather than autonomy potential.

Broader Strategic Initiatives Under Discussion

During the factory visit, Piper Sandler analysts also explored Tesla’s proprietary chip initiatives, battery storage expansion, and Optimus humanoid robot development. The research team emphasized that cost structure optimization and capital expenditure discipline will prove critical to achieving margin recovery in future periods.