#欧美关税风波冲击市场 Macroeconomic Shocks Intensify Bull-Bear Battles: What Stage Is the Current Crypto Market At?

Macroeconomic Shocks and Structural Evolution
The core driver of this market volatility stems from changes in the international trade environment. The United States announced a 10% tariff increase on eight European countries starting February 1, and hinted that if no agreement is reached on the Greenland issue, the relevant tariffs will be raised to 25% in June. This policy move quickly triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, with traditional safe-haven assets experiencing capital inflows, while digital assets like Bitcoin, classified as risk assets, faced sell-offs.
From an internal market structure perspective, this adjustment exhibits the following features:
Rapid Leverage Liquidation: Large-scale long liquidations, while intensifying short-term declines, also effectively released accumulated leverage risk in the market.
Divergence in Capital Flows: While retail investors withdrew, institutional funds continued to deploy through Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net inflow of approximately $65.5 million over the past three trading days, notably driven by BlackRock’s IBIT product.
Technical Support Emerges: Bitcoin found support near $91,900, while Ethereum demonstrated resilience in the $3,150-$3,200 range.

Operational Strategy: Key Positioning and Risk Control
Based on the current market environment, the following operational strategies are recommended: Technical basis for Bitcoin (BTC) trading framework:
Price retraced to the support zone of $91,000-$92,000, which includes previous lows and requires technical correction.
Operational suggestion: Gradually build long positions in the $89,500-$91,000 range, with stop-loss set below $88,500. Short-term targets are set at resistance zones of $94,000-$95,000.

Ethereum (ETH) trading framework technical basis:
Price fell back to the previous platform’s lower boundary of $3,150-$3,200, with staking exit pressure easing, providing fundamental support.
Operational suggestion: Lightly position within the $3,150-$3,200 range, with stop-loss below $3,050. Target levels are referenced at $3,300-$3,400.

Risk Management Key Points
Position allocation: No more than 10% of total funds in a single asset to maintain portfolio diversification.
Stop-loss discipline: Strictly execute preset stop-loss levels to avoid emotional holding.
Entry timing: Avoid chasing highs; wait for a retracement to key support zones before deploying positions.
Currently, the market is in a recovery phase following macro shocks.

Future developments to monitor:
Policy trends: Progress of Europe-US trade negotiations and the timetable for policy implementation.
Capital flows: Continuity of Bitcoin ETF capital inflows and institutional allocation attitudes.
Technical signals: Effectiveness of major support levels and the direction of breakout choices.
After rapid adjustments, markets often need time to rebuild confidence. Investors are advised to focus on fundamental stability and reasonable technical positioning while maintaining high sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, all under strict risk control.