Coinbase business transformation shows initial results! Goldman Sachs upgrades rating to "Buy" with a target price of $303

Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street investment bank, has officially upgraded Coinbase’s investment rating from “Neutral” to “Buy,” with a target stock price set at $303. According to Goldman Sachs’s latest 2026 industry outlook report, this rating upgrade reflects market recognition of Coinbase’s diversified strategy. Based on the recent price of approximately $225, the potential upside is 34%. However, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that this optimism is a “selective assessment” and does not represent a comprehensive shift in the entire cryptocurrency industry.

From Single Trading to Diversified Infrastructure, Revenue Structure Significantly Optimized

Coinbase is accelerating its departure from the past business model that relied solely on “trading fees.” Data shows that the revenue share from infrastructure-related services such as custody, staking, and subscription services has increased from less than 5% five years ago to currently 40%. This transformation is highly significant for investors—compared to trading income, which is more susceptible to market fluctuations, these businesses have lower volatility, more stable cash flow, and are better aligned with the long-term trend of cryptocurrencies moving into mainstream finance.

It is precisely because of this optimized revenue structure that Goldman Sachs believes Coinbase’s long-term growth potential is even more promising. The company is no longer just a trading platform but has evolved into an enterprise providing comprehensive financial infrastructure services.

New Products Launching, Market and Asset Tokenization Outlook Looks Bright

Another key factor driving Goldman Sachs’s upward revision is Coinbase’s recent series of new product launches. In December last year, the company announced expansion into U.S. stock trading, the launch of prediction markets, derivatives trading, and more comprehensive banking and financial services.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that prediction markets and asset tokenization hold enormous market potential. However, whether they can generate substantial revenue depends on scale and liquidity. This is where Coinbase’s advantage over competitors lies—thanks to its large existing user base, the company has the opportunity to seize early mover advantages in these emerging markets.

Short-term Competition Intensifies, Rising Interest Rate Sensitivity Presents Challenges

Despite the optimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs remains cautious about Coinbase’s short-term profitability. The report points out that as traditional brokerages enter the cryptocurrency trading space and crypto-native companies actively expand into stocks, banking, and payment services, the overall customer acquisition cost (CAC) continues to rise, exerting structural pressure on profit margins.

Additionally, changes in the interest rate environment increasingly impact Coinbase’s business model. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the company’s adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) profit margin will likely not see significant expansion and may remain stable or face downward pressure.

Diversification Turnaround, Coinbase Faces a Critical Year

Although facing short-term challenges from competition and interest rates, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Coinbase’s medium- to long-term prospects and has set a target price of $303. This reflects market recognition of its diversified business approach and leadership in emerging financial infrastructure sectors. For investors, 2026 will be a critical year to assess the effectiveness of Coinbase’s transformation.