Spot gold reaching new highs again has led to a return of risk aversion sentiment, but is this the start of a new trend?

Recently, the price of spot gold has once again hit a record high, attracting widespread market attention. On the surface, this appears to be a typical safe-haven move, but a deeper analysis reveals that the driving forces behind gold's rise are undergoing structural changes. It is no longer just a “temporary refuge during sudden risks,” but, under the interplay of multiple macro variables, is gradually returning to its core role as a long-term asset allocation.

First, global macro uncertainties have not substantially diminished. Geopolitical conflicts, trade frictions, and fiscal deficits continue to persist, and market demand for “stability anchors” has significantly increased. Compared to the high volatility of stocks and cryptocurrencies, the certainty advantage of gold is being re-priced. Especially in the context of repeated discussions about the credibility of the US dollar, gold’s “non-sovereign attribute” has become a plus.

Second, the logic of real interest rates is shifting. Even though nominal interest rates remain high, the resilience of inflation is increasing expectations for declining real interest rates. Historical experience shows that as long as real interest rates turn downward, gold often exhibits medium-term trending movements rather than fleeting rebounds.

From a capital perspective, institutional funds are reallocating into gold assets. ETF holdings are rising, and central banks continue to increase their holdings, indicating that “smart money” has not exited at high levels but instead views gold as a long-term hedge against macro risks.

Overall, this round of spot gold reaching new highs is more a continuation and reinforcement of an existing trend rather than a short-term emotional pulse. There may be short-term volatility, but the medium- to long-term logic remains valid.