【Current Market Overview】

From the daily chart, BTC is currently consolidating weakly around 78,000 - 80,000. Although the RSI indicator shows it has entered the oversold zone and there is a technical rebound demand in the market, the overall structure remains suppressed by a declining high.

【Core Analysis】
1. Key Support: 74,000 is the last line of defense for the bulls. Market interpretation: The purple rectangle area (demand zone) in the chart, along with Fibonacci extension levels and previous lows, forms a resonant support around 72,000 - 74,000. Focus: 74,000 is a critical boundary for recent structural strength. If the price finds support here, it may maintain a short-term range-bound consolidation; once it breaks below 74,000 with increased volume, panic selling could intensify, opening the way for a decline toward the 6-digit level.

2. Trend Forecast: Consolidation to buy time. Since RSI is low, the possibility of a sudden waterfall decline in the short term is decreasing, and the market is more likely to enter a phase of oscillation and correction. This oscillation is not a reversal signal but a "relay pattern" within a bearish trend. Major players often use consolidation to digest oversold indicators and induce bulls to enter, accumulating momentum for the next downward move.

3. Macro Trend: The bearish arrangement remains unchanged, with a high probability of further downward pressure from a trendline: The descending trendline from the 98k high remains intact, with lower highs and lower lows. Fibonacci resistance: Rebound is clearly hindered, and it is even difficult to effectively stay above 0.786 (around 79,500). As long as it cannot break through key resistance levels like 83,500, the overall downward trend remains unchanged. The current consolidation is just a pause during the decline, and a new round of downward exploration is likely ahead.

4. Trading Strategy: Rebound is an opportunity to short. Main theme: Follow the trend. Going short at high levels remains the strategy with the best risk-reward ratio. Specific approach: Do not blindly bottom-fish. Watch the resistance around 79,500 - 82,000. If there is a quick pullback or insufficient volume, it is an excellent entry point for short positions.
#BTC何时反弹？