When Will XRP Hit $100? Why David Schwartz Thinks That Narrative Misses the Point

The $100 XRP price target resurfaces with predictable regularity in crypto cycles. It’s a number that captures attention. But Ripple’s CTO David Schwartz recently dismantled this recurring prediction with a single, unavoidable observation rooted in market mechanics. His argument is straightforward: if rational investors genuinely assigned even a 10% probability to XRP reaching $100 within a few years, today’s market structure would look completely different. The current price levels wouldn’t survive. Supply would evaporate. Demand would outpace availability. None of that is happening—and that silence speaks louder than any bullish thesis.

When Belief and Market Price Should Align

David Schwartz’s logic targets the disconnect between public optimism and actual market behavior. Consider the mechanics: rational participants who truly believed in a 10% chance of a $100 outcome would not be casual about current XRP holdings. They would accumulate aggressively. They would bid prices higher. They would absorb available supply at these discount levels. The market would move in anticipation of that conviction, not after it happens.

The fact that XRP trades where it does—near $1.46 as of early February 2026, well below the $100 narrative—reveals something deeper. Most market participants, despite talking about bullish scenarios online, are not allocating capital as if those scenarios are probable. The gap between what people say in forums and what they actually buy reflects their genuine assessment of odds. Price discovery emerges from this honest misalignment, not from predictions or wishful thinking.

Market Rationality vs. Irrational Narratives

David Schwartz pushes back against the view that crypto markets are pure noise or manipulation playgrounds. His position: most prices are surprisingly rational most of the time. They weigh upside potential against adoption timelines, regulatory risk, competition, technical execution, and fundamental uncertainty. Wild bull runs, when they do materialize, typically stem from unexpected catalyst events—regulatory breakthroughs, macroeconomic shifts, or structural changes in capital flows—not from gradual belief accumulation.

For XRP specifically, future catalysts remain tied to external forces. Payment adoption at scale. Institutional participation. Regulatory frameworks that clarify digital asset treatment. These variables operate on unpredictable timelines. Markets price that structural uncertainty into every trading day. That pricing discipline is not weakness; it is realistic.

The Utility Foundation Remains Unchanged

What endures through price debates is XRPL’s core function: payments settlement, asset exchange, cross-border transfer efficiency. This infrastructure operates regardless of whether XRP trades at $1 or $100. Utility does not vanish in market downturns. But utility alone does not compel a valuation jump. Markets historically demand proof of adoption at scale before assigning extreme multiples. They wait for actual usage metrics, not for technological potential.

David Schwartz’s framework—uncomfortable for extreme bulls—rests on rigorous market microeconomics. Price represents a collective, probability-weighted assessment made by millions of participants deploying real capital each day. Anyone can recalculate: adjust the target price, modify your assigned odds, extend the timeframe. The result often converges on the same conclusion. The market is not sleeping. It is actively allocating resources based on genuine belief hierarchies. Right now, capital allocation does not support the $100 narrative—and that is the market’s most honest statement.