Crypto Circle Surgical Operation Rules: Precisely Identify Resistance and Support Levels for BTC and ETH

Using a “scalpel” to describe trading operations refers to precision and accuracy. Yesterday, Bitcoin touched around 88,800 and rebounded; the first doji candle reached the divergence point at 89,500, and the highest pressure was at the 90,500 resistance zone before pulling back—In this series of actions, every key level was precisely grasped, reflecting a deep understanding of market rhythm. Currently, BTC price is at $68.75K, down 3.85% over 24 hours, and the market is still repeatedly testing these critical psychological levels.

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Dual Test: The Oscillation Logic in the 88,800-90,500 Range

The damping zone between 89,500 and 90,500 mentioned in yesterday’s analysis has become a critical “scalpel” position. After reaching 90,500, Bitcoin experienced two rounds of pressure; the bears’ rhythm is quite deliberate—initially testing with reduced volume, and when the 89,500 defense line failed to hold, they increased volume to push downward. This indicates that the bears are actively accumulating and waiting for a breakout opportunity.

Based on yesterday’s analysis framework, the lower target points to around 87,500. But the key issue is that the market has not yet formed an effective breakout on either side, meaning the trend will likely remain in a range-bound oscillation. Under this pattern, the optimal strategy is to prioritize downside potential but remain flexible enough to respond to two-way volatility.

Ethereum’s performance is also worth noting. During the night session, ETH first dipped to around 2,980, then oscillated near 3,040 during the rebound, before continuing downward testing. The intraday low was around 2,930, and the current price is $2.03K, down 4.82% over 24 hours. This movement range is slightly narrower than the expected target of 2,920, but overall it remains within the established range.

Market Sentiment Shift and Technical Interplay: Risks of Downward Trends Amid Rate Cut Expectations

The key to the future lies in understanding the current microstructure of the market. After the January transition, the most beneficial move for market makers is to initiate a round of dumping or sustained decline, aiming to shake out bullish participants during the pre-New Year rally. This is not just simple selling pressure but a strategic liquidity generation.

It’s worth noting that rate cut expectations do not align with most market participants’ judgments, but on the contrary, precious metals continue to rise. Sentiment across different asset classes influences each other, so we shouldn’t be overly bearish. In such a complex environment, blindly shorting only exposes you to unnecessary risk. A more rational approach is to operate in segments within the oscillation range, greatly improving fault tolerance.

Scalpel-Level Precision Trading Plan: Short Position Setup Based on EMA Indicators

From a technical perspective, the current 1-hour EMA 120 and 144 moving averages are concentrated around 88,900, serving as important reference levels. Ethereum’s 1-hour EMA30, 120, and 144 are centered near 2,980. Based on these signals, we can continue with yesterday’s approach:

BTC Trading Plan:

• Initiate short positions at 88,800
• Reserve space for adding positions at 89,500
• Target below at 85,800–86,200

ETH Trading Plan:

• Short positions in the 2,960–2,980 range
• Watch for the second target around 2,860 as previously set
• Handle rebounds flexibly based on actual market conditions

Risk Management Details:

• Stop-loss levels should be reasonably set according to your position size
• Traders with different capital amounts should adjust lot sizes to keep risk manageable
• During range-bound oscillations, small, multiple “scalpel” operations are more stable than heavy single-position trades

This is the essence of precise trading—every level, every operation is carefully thought out, just like a scalpel’s precise cut. The market will continue to test participants’ execution and patience; only by strictly following the established plan can one profit amid oscillations.