VanEck: Bitcoin Sentiment Weakens, On-Chain Signals Stay Firm

Market reset underway. Fundamentals under review.
Key Points:
• 29% price decline in 30 days
• NUPL enters “anxiety” zone
• Open interest reset to 2024 levels
• Miner supply tightening despite margin pressure

VanEck’s mid-February 2026 Bitcoin report highlights a significant drop in sentiment along with adjustments in leverage. After a 29% decline over the past month, market psychology has changed. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has entered the anxiety range, reflecting less confidence and some panic.

At the same time, derivatives positioning has cooled, with open interest falling back to levels last seen in September 2024. This indicates a broader reset of leverage across the market.

Most distribution activity has been driven by mid-term holders (1–5 years), but selling pressure has eased recently. Tokens held for more than a year have shown a clear slowdown in distribution over the past month.

Miner profitability has decreased, and hash rate has dropped about 14% over the last 90 days, showing tighter supply conditions. Despite the price volatility, on-chain activity remains strong, suggesting that the underlying strength may not match current market prices.

Is this capitulation phase setting the stage for the next cycle shift?$BTC ‌#GateSquare$50KRedPacketGiveaway