Should you buy this dip or are we going lower?


Rough week so far ngl: $ETH is down about 8.6%, and $BTC is down ~7.7%
Looked on-chain to try and figure out what's happening with $ETH, and I found something pretty interesting:
---
🔸 Firstly, who’s selling ETH?
Top PnL traders sold around $7.7M net in the last 24 hours.
These are the wallets with a proven track record, wallets that have made money consistently across cycles.
And they reduced ETH exposure before and during the drop.
This is bearish, and we should be concerned.
🔸 Now, let's see who’s buying.
➜ Fresh wallets brought in about $503.8M. Aggressive dip buying should be bullish, but this is from retail, and we can't trust retail, can we?
➜ Exchange outflows sit at -$79.1M. Now, this is good. It means $ETH is leaving centralized exchanges, and that usually means accumulation.
➜ Public figure wallets added around $229k. Good sign, but really small compared to $ETH's market cap.
So yes, there is buying but it's not convincing enough.
Exchange outflows are bullish, but the best-performing traders are out and fresh-wallet FOMO has historically been a bad signal.
I couldn't come to a conclusion with this so I checked what smart perps traders are doing instead.
---
The most active trader on Hyperliquid this week opened 7 BTC longs totaling ~$2.3M ($64,852 - $68,015), and then switched to a $320k BTC short at $64,161, so he's obviously just trading the range.
Another took a $297k ETH short at $1,980 and a $296k ETH long at $1,977.
Basically, there's no conviction or directional trading.
🔸 So what should you do?
Wait it out.
If profitable wallets are selling, why should you be buying?
The smartest perps traders see no clear direction yet, so wait until the direction is obvious before you make a decision.
If you still decide to trade regardless, scalp.
ETH range to watch: $1,815–$1,867
BTC range to watch: $63,400–$64,850
Hades out 🔱
ETH-3,37%
BTC-3,2%
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