#Circle&NvidiaEarningsAhead

The market is laser-focused on two massive earnings reports that dropped this morning and will hit after the closing bell. Circle has already delivered spectacular results, and all eyes are now on Nvidia. Here's your complete breakdown.

CIRCLE (CRCL) EARNINGS: THE STABLECOIN GIANT DELIVERS

The Headline:
Circle Internet Group just reported Q4 2025 earnings that crushed every single metric, sending shares soaring over 23 percent.

Circle Q4 2025 Performance Snapshot

Revenue reached 770 million dollars, up 77 percent year-over-year, beating the 744 million dollar estimate. Net income hit 133 million dollars, up 129 percent, delivering a significant beat. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 167 million dollars, up an incredible 412 percent, well above the 130 million dollar estimate. Earnings per share landed at 43 cents, crushing the 16 cent estimate. Revenue less distribution costs climbed to 309 million dollars, up 136 percent.

USDC: Explosive Growth Across Every Metric

Circle's flagship stablecoin USDC is firing on all cylinders. Circulation reached 75.3 billion dollars at year-end, up 72 percent year-over-year, nearly doubling the company's own 40 percent target. Market share now stands at 28 percent of total stablecoin circulation, gaining 426 basis points. Transaction volume in Q4 hit a staggering 11.9 trillion dollars, up 247 percent year-over-year. USDC captured 47 percent of all stablecoin transaction volumes, up from 32 percent a year ago.

Platform and Network Growth

Circle is building serious infrastructure muscle. Meaningful wallets now total 6.8 million, up 59 percent year-over-year. Native USDC runs on 30 chains, with 14 added in fiscal year 2025. Cross-chain transfer volume hit 41.3 billion dollars, up 3.7 times, now commanding 50 percent of bridged USDC volume. The Arc Testnet launched in October 2025 with over 100 companies and has processed 166 million total transactions. The Circle Payments Network reached 5.7 billion dollars in annualized transaction volume with 55 financial institutions enrolled.

Diversification in Action

Circle is reducing reliance on interest income. Other revenue reached 110 million dollars for the full year, driven by platform services and transaction fees. EURC circulation grew to 310 million euros, up 3.8 times year-over-year. USYC tokenized treasuries reached 1.5 billion dollars in assets under management.

CEO Commentary

Jeremy Allaire painted a massive vision. He stated that we are entering a world where tens or even hundreds of billions of AI agents will interact and perform economic functions over the Internet. He added that 2025 was a milestone year for Circle and the industry, and still just the outset of these megatrends.

Circle FY 2026 Guidance

The company is guiding for continued but moderated growth. USDC circulation growth is projected at 40 percent CAGR, compared to 72 percent in fiscal year 2025. Other revenue is expected between 150 and 170 million dollars. Revenue less distribution costs margin is targeted at 38 to 40 percent. Adjusted operating expenses are forecast between 570 and 585 million dollars.

Stock Context

Despite the massive earnings beat, CRCL shares remain 75 percent below their 52-week high of 298 dollars 99 cents, reflecting broader crypto market volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

NVIDIA (NVDA) EARNINGS PREVIEW: THE MAIN EVENT

All eyes are now on Nvidia, reporting after the bell today.

What Wall Street Expects

Revenue is expected around 65.8 to 65.97 billion dollars, representing 67 to 68 percent growth year-over-year. Earnings per share are estimated at 1 dollar 53 cents, up 72 percent. Data center revenue is projected at approximately 60.2 billion dollars. Gaming revenue is expected near 4.0 billion dollars, up 58 percent. Professional visualization is seen at roughly 650 million dollars, up 31 percent. Automotive revenue is forecast around 520 million dollars, up 32 percent.

The Blackwell Factor

All attention is on the Blackwell architecture ramp. Management indicated last quarter that Blackwell shipments would exceed prior expectations. The market is watching for data center gross margins, which have been a point of concern. Investors want to know if the China restriction impact is playing out as expected. Demand signals from hyperscalers remain critical, especially their 2026 capex commentary. The custom silicon ASIC threat is also on everyone's radar. Lead times and supply chain dynamics will reveal whether demand is cooling or still red hot.

Options Market Pricing

The options market is pricing in a massive move. Implied move is approximately plus or minus 8.5 percent, representing about 300 billion dollars in market cap swing. Call skew is elevated, with calls trading at a premium to puts. Open interest is concentrated in out-of-the-money calls, suggesting retail optimism. Hedging flows indicate market makers are positioned for upside volatility.

The Broader Implications

Nvidia results will set the tone for the entire AI trade. Semiconductor indices and AI-related altcoins are highly sensitive to the print. A beat could reignite the AI crypto narrative. A miss might trigger broad risk-off moves across both tech and crypto markets.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Today is a historic day for earnings. Circle has already proven that the stablecoin economy is generating real, explosive revenue growth. The numbers speak for themselves—trillion-dollar transaction volumes, 77 percent revenue growth, and a clear path to diversification beyond interest income.

Now the spotlight shifts to Nvidia. The company needs to deliver a clean beat and raise guidance to justify its valuation. But more importantly, the market wants to hear about Blackwell demand, China exposure, and whether the AI capex cycle shows any signs of slowing.

For crypto markets, both reports matter. Circle validates the stablecoin business model. Nvidia validates the AI compute narrative that underpins so much of crypto's infrastructure layer.

What are your predictions for Nvidia? Are you watching the options flow, or just waiting for the print? Drop your thoughts below. 👇