#JaneStreet10AMSellOff

#JaneStreet10AMSellOff
The Jane Street 10 AM Sell-Off Phenomenon – Microstructure Shift and Bitcoin's Current Price Action
The Intraday Pattern That Defined Crypto Trading for Months
For an extended period, Bitcoin and major altcoins exhibited a remarkably consistent U.S. session behavior: early rallies building momentum in the first 30–60 minutes after the 9:30 AM ET equity open, often peaking before facing sharp, repeatable selling pressure right around 10:00 AM Eastern Time. This became widely known in trading circles as the "Jane Street 10 AM Sell-Off," attributed by many to systematic flows from Jane Street—a massive proprietary trading firm and liquidity provider active in Bitcoin spot ETFs as an authorized participant.
Key Microstructure Drivers Behind the 10 AM Window
Post-9:30 AM range establishment creates initial volatility absorption.
Overnight and global positioning largely unwinds by mid-morning.
Institutional algos, market makers, and ETF creation/redemption flows recalibrate once opening noise fades.
Momentum peaks frequently align here, priming the setup for hedging, profit realization, or book adjustments.
The pattern showed classic signs: local highs tagged early, followed by bid thinning, volume spikes on the offer, and rapid rejection. It became so reliable that strategies evolved around it—fading into the hour, post-dump entries, or precise stop placement. Expectation turned it semi-self-fulfilling, amplifying the move through positioned algos and narrative-driven capital.
Jane Street's Spotlight Role
As a high-frequency prop trader and ETF AP (notably for products like BlackRock's IBIT), Jane Street's scale and limited real-time disclosure invited speculation. Community theories pointed to ETF hedging or systematic selling explaining the dumps—no conclusive flow data ever singled them out definitively, but the observable consistency kept the shorthand alive.
The Disruption: Lawsuit News and Immediate Market Reaction
The Terraform Labs bankruptcy administrator filed an insider trading lawsuit against Jane Street in late February 2026 (around February 23), alleging misuse of non-public info during the 2022 Terra/LUNA events. Almost coincidentally, the long-standing 10 AM pressure evaporated starting February 25–27. Early-session strength persisted through the hour without reversal on multiple days—Bitcoin held or rallied where prior dumps had capped it.
Post-lawsuit, BTC saw notable short-term relief: a sharp rebound of around +10% in sessions immediately following (breaking toward $68k–$69k ranges briefly), with liquidations hitting shorts hard. The correlation fueled intense debate—coincidence, behavioral shift under scrutiny, or algo tweaks?
Bitcoin's Price Right Now – February 28, 2026 Context
As of today (late February 28, 2026), Bitcoin has pulled back significantly in the weekend session. After flirting with $70,000 earlier in the week (briefly touching near that level mid-week), BTC has retreated into the mid-$65,000 zone—trading around $65,500–$65,900 across major exchanges (e.g., ~$65,795 on Yahoo Finance data, ~$65,536–$65,790 reported in real-time updates, with some prints dipping below $65,000 intraday).
This marks a ~3–4% drop in the last 24 hours, erasing much of the post-lawsuit bounce and pushing it back into the broader $60k–$70k consolidation range it's occupied since early February dips. Broader risk-off sentiment (tied to U.S. equities and macro repricing) appears to be the dominant driver now, overriding the earlier microstructure narrative.
The 10 AM window remains a liquidity hotspot structurally—but without the old predictable dump, intraday volatility has shifted: less mechanical selling, more organic flow response. Whether this "frees up" upside (removing a perceived cap) or simply reveals other pressures (like ETF net flows turning neutral/negative) is the live question.
Core Takeaways
Narratives around big players can drive real positioning until external shocks (lawsuits, scrutiny) break them.
Time-specific liquidity and institutional flows are powerful forces in crypto.
Wall Street integration means legal/regulatory ripples hit price action fast.
Correlation isn't causation—the pattern broke, BTC rallied briefly, but macro has taken over for the current pullback.
The regime feels reset: no guaranteed 10 AM floor/ceiling anymore. Traders adapting now focus on broader ranges, ETF flow data, and macro catalysts over single-hour patterns.