Today’s Market Overview..

Given the current situation, the technical perspective may not have much to reference due to the influence of news.. There’s a possibility of invalidation, and what happens next may depend more on whether the situation escalates...
But let’s just watch for now..
Figure 1: From the order book depth, there is still a demand zone below here that has existed previously. Ignoring major news, looking solely at the market, this is a traditional medium-term bullish entry zone in my system..
Figure 2: Currently, the demand below 63k mainly consists of grid orders every 500 points. The real larger demand is still around 60k.
Interestingly, the futures market remains calm in the face of this situation, with no orders participating in the game...
There are some small orders of a few hundred contracts near 64.5k, representing short-term resistance.
So the question is, is this the end of the line?
Is there a possibility of continuing to break through the demand zone downward?
Based on current market pricing, this wave of attack, along with Iran’s recent counterattacks targeting several Middle Eastern locations (U.S. military bases), is still within market expectations.
It aligns with previous behavioral patterns — “symbolic retaliation.”
If this weekend just passes like this, it’s probably here, or maybe a little more, with the demand zone between 60-63k holding up.
To break through this zone, the market would need an unexpected development... What could that be? Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? (which would have a bigger impact on crude oil) Or even more extreme, a dirty bomb? (which would likely push prices into the 5-digit range)
Otherwise, even if special forces capture Menee, it might just be like this...
That’s beyond our prediction...
In my view, the baseline scenario is that as long as this mutual combat doesn’t exceed market expectations (which is the previous behavioral pattern the market anticipates),
this large range won’t break...
It’s like stating the obvious...
In the face of news, technical analysis has to step aside...
Figure 3: From the CVD perspective, there’s something not too quick for bulls...
Spot CVD has sharply reversed, indicating someone is accumulating spot positions... but the price hasn’t moved up accordingly... passive selling pressure has absorbed it...
In a bear market, such bearish divergence has a higher success rate... So I still expect the possibility of further downside here...
Therefore, I won’t enter the market for now...
Although the gap from 65.5k to 64k after the sharp decline will definitely be filled ( and will also be a CME gap,
but I need a good entry point
(For example, whether to go in now to fill the gap or wait until it drops to 62k or 61k before entering)
This sideways consolidation might not be the best entry point yet...
Continue to observe; at worst, I’ll just miss the opportunity...
Figure 4: Regarding options, there are three major negative gamma peaks at 62k, 60k, and 58k, mainly originating from the options on March 6 and March 27.
Both of these options have significant open interest and influence.
So, if the situation worsens, there’s a risk of breaking below the previous low of 62.4k on the 24th -> entering the 62k acceleration zone -> stop-loss orders stacking with negative gamma intensifying volatility -> down to 60k -> a chain reaction.
Be alert for this kind of accelerated downward move.
I can’t ignore the possibility today since I’ll be outside over the weekend and won’t be able to monitor the market...
In the news-driven market, I prefer to stay on the sidelines...
Anyway, there are opportunities every day.