Meteoras MET-Token: Between Fair Valuation and Market Expectations

The upcoming TGE (Token Generation Event) of Meteora raises a key question for investors: What is a realistic valuation for the MET token? Based on data from the Solana DEX landscape and an analysis of comparable platforms, a valuation range can be outlined between $4.5 billion and $11 billion. This makes Meteora an interesting case study for current market dynamics in the crypto sector.

Valuation Foundations for MET

Meteora was launched in February 2023 by the Jupiter team as a rebuild of the previous project Mercurial Finance. The reason for this restart was Mercurial’s close ties to FTX and Alameda, prompting the team to relaunch the platform with a fresh token. This strategic decision highlights how transparency and independence have become crucial in the DeFi sector.

At the TGE, 48% of the MET supply will be in circulation—relatively high compared to other prominent Solana tokens. The team fulfilled its promises to Mercurial stakeholders: 15% of tokens go to them, with an additional 5% allocated to the Mercurial reserve. Since January 2024, a DEX reward program distributing 15% has been active.

Initial liquidity is secured through a dynamic AMM pool starting at a price of $0.50, with liquidity distributed up to a valuation of $7.5 billion. Notably, the pool has a single-sided structure, where early buyers swap their USDC for MET. Pool fees start high and decrease significantly over time—designed to protect early investors.

Meteora’s Strategic Positioning in the DEX Market

The decentralized exchange (DEX) sector faces a structural challenge: without its own frontend, these platforms lack sustainable competitive advantages. A prime example is Raydium, which lost significant trading volume after PumpSwap rerouted its tokens to another AMM.

Meteora addresses this issue through vertical integration and strategic partnerships. Close collaboration with Jupiter—the leading DEX aggregator and gateway for retail investors on Solana—is central. In August 2024, Meteora partnered with Moonshot and further established collaborations with Believe, BAGS, and Jup Studio. These launchpad activities have generated weekly revenues between $200,000 and $800,000 in recent weeks, mainly from Believe and BAGS.

Over 90% of Meteora’s income comes from memecoin pools, which typically charge higher fees than SOL-stablecoin, project token, or LST pools. This focus on a highly volatile segment presents both opportunities and risks.

Market Context: Crypto Volatility and ETF Dynamics

The current market environment shows mixed signals. Bitcoin’s price rose 7% in the past week from its local low, with launchpad projects generally performing best. Conversely, the AI sector experienced notable declines. Over the month, the overall balance remains negative, with exceptions like gold and crypto miners.

ETF fund flows are cautious: recent reports show Bitcoin ETF outflows of $40 million and Ethereum ETF outflows of $145 million. The only exception was the Solana ETF, which saw an inflow of $27 million. Weekly net outflows from all ETFs totaled $1.5 billion.

These macroeconomic conditions are important for contextualizing the MET valuation. In a market with constrained capital flows, projects must demonstrate strong fundamentals.

The MET Supply and Forecast Scenarios

To evaluate Meteora, it’s useful to compare it with similar DEX platforms: Raydium (RAY) and Orca (ORCA).

The price-to-sales ratios of these peers reveal insightful patterns. ORCA consistently trades at a P/S ratio of about 6x across all annualized periods. Raydium has become more expensive as its revenue declined, trading at a median P/S ratio of 9x in 2025.

Meteora’s annualized revenues range—from approximately $75 million to $115 million depending on the period considered. Applying a P/S ratio between 6x and 10x (the historical range of its comparables) yields a reasonable valuation for the MET token between $4.5 billion and $11 billion.

Valuations above $10 billion become challenging compared to Raydium and Orca. A valuation exceeding $20 billion would strongly suggest overvaluation unless the project significantly improves its profit margins.

Key factors influencing the final MET valuation will be: (1) actual market acceptance at launch, (2) growth rate of fee revenues, and (3) stability of launchpad partnerships. The fair value of MET will ultimately depend on these metrics.