Bitget Daily Market Watch | Australian Index Fluctuations, Global Market Sentiment Shift (Market Review for February 3, 2026)

March 5th latest data shows that the correlation between the Australian index and major global indices continues to rise, especially amid changing expectations of central bank policies. This report is based on the market snapshot from February 3rd, combined with the latest cryptocurrency data, providing investors with a comprehensive market analysis.

I. Global Central Bank Policies and Their Linkage to the Australian Index

Federal Reserve Policy Shift: Powell Nomination Eases Market Concerns

Morgan Stanley strategists note that Powell’s nomination, as a hawkish representative, can alleviate market worries about dollar depreciation, positively impacting the Australian index as well. Since Australia’s economy is closely tied to global commodity prices, stabilization of Fed policies benefits the stability of the AUD and the ASX.

• Powell’s appointment is expected to strengthen Fed credibility and curb excessive inflation expectations
• This policy signal may suppress precious metals’ gains in the short term but help maintain financial system stability in the medium term
• The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy flexibility is thus released, potentially improving risk appetite in capital markets

Australia Interest Rate Decision: March Policy Outlook

According to market schedules, the RBA will announce its latest rate decision at 02:30. The Australian index is highly sensitive to this decision, with markets generally expecting a cautious stance to support economic recovery. This decision, resonating with the Fed’s policy shift, could push the Australian index to new highs.

II. Commodity Recovery and Multi-Market Overview

Precious Metals Rebound: Benefiting the Australian Index

Key turning points for gold and silver

• Spot silver rose over 4% in one day; gold rebounded 2.55%, surpassing $4,770/oz, ending a three-day decline
• Driven by easing dollar depreciation expectations, investors took profits and re-evaluated positions
• This rebound favors Australian mining stocks, with strong performance in the resource sector within the index

Trump’s $1.2 billion strategic mineral investment plan

The “Project Vault” initiative launched with $10 billion in loans plus $1.67 billion in private investment to establish a strategic reserve. This policy has far-reaching impacts on global supply chains:

• Targeting high-tech industries like automotive and technology, mimicking strategic petroleum reserves
• Reducing supply chain risks and stimulating demand for mineral commodities
• As a major global mineral exporter, Australia’s iron ore and lithium exports are expected to benefit, supporting the Australian index

Global Market Trends and Their Connection to the Australian Index

US markets steady and improving

• Dow Jones: +1.05%, continuing rebound
• S&P 500: +0.54%, rising after a low open, approaching all-time highs
• Nasdaq: +0.56%, driven by data storage sector supporting tech giants

ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations at 52.6 (vs. 48.5), with strong growth in new orders and production, and employment reaching its highest of the year. This signals resilience in the US economy, boosting risk appetite among Australian index investors.

Australian index correlation with global markets

The Australian index shows positive correlation with the three major US indices, especially in an environment of improved risk appetite. Optimism about trade (US-India trade agreement, tariffs reduced from 25% to 18%) enhances global liquidity, benefiting export-oriented Australian companies.

III. Latest Cryptocurrency Market Movements

Price Performance and Australian Investor Participation

Real-time data update (March 5, 2026)

• Bitcoin (BTC): $72,310, +5.95% in 24 hours (significantly faster than +1.34% on Feb 3)
• Ethereum (ETH): $2,120, +7.39% in 24 hours (vs. +2.05% on Feb 3, showing increased momentum)
• Total Market Cap: $2.73 trillion, with rising market engagement

Australian investors’ crypto allocations are gradually increasing, indirectly boosting stocks in fintech and trading platforms within the Australian index.

Galaxy Digital and Bernstein Market Outlook

Galaxy Digital analysis: Bitcoin may test the 200-week moving average at $58,000 support in the coming months, indicating the market still needs to consolidate its bottom.

Bernstein research: Short-term bear market for cryptocurrencies could conclude by the end of 2026, with Bitcoin’s bottom range around $60,000. This aligns with expectations of a dovish Australian central bank, suggesting a relatively ample global liquidity environment.

IV. Deep Dive into US Tech and Industrial Stocks

Palantir: Outperforming in Government and Commercial Sectors

Q4 Highlights

• Revenue: $1.31 billion, +70% YoY, exceeding expectations in both government and commercial segments
• Adjusted EPS: $0.25 vs. $0.23 forecast
• Q1 guidance: $153.2–$153.6 million; full-year guidance: $718.2–$719.8 million, well above market estimates

Market Reaction

Post-market, shares rose 8%. Goldman Sachs praised its AI analysis potential, while Morgan Stanley warned of high valuation and risks from government contract shifts. Australian investors’ interest in Palantir is rising, and the stock is included in international tech funds tracking the Australian index.

NXP Semiconductors: Strong Results but Automotive Challenges

Q4 Results

• Revenue: $3.34 billion, EPS: $3.35, both surpassing expectations
• Q1 outlook also better than expected, but automotive segment underperformed
• Post-market, shares fell over 5%

Analysts note that despite robust semiconductor demand, overstocked automotive chips may weigh on short-term performance. As a trade-dependent economy, Australia’s tech sector, including NXP, influences the tech weighting in the index.

Oracle’s $25 Billion Cloud Infrastructure Investment

Funding Plan

Oracle issued $25 billion in bonds (8 tranches, led by Goldman Sachs and others) to fund AI cloud infrastructure investments. This reflects intensifying cloud computing competition.

Market Perspective

Citi is optimistic about cloud transformation, while UBS worries about increased debt burdens. Australia’s cloud demand continues to grow, and Oracle’s expansion locally could support long-term growth.

Snowflake and OpenAI Partnership: $200 Million Deal Significance

Partnership Details

Snowflake and OpenAI signed a $200 million agreement to integrate AI models into cloud platforms, supporting natural language data retrieval and efficient AI deployment.

Institutional Views

JPMorgan sees this as strengthening cloud solution competitiveness, intensifying market competition. The partnership also sets a digital transformation example for Australian companies.

Disney: 5% Revenue Growth, Profit Pressure Mounts

Q1 Financials

• Revenue: $25.98 billion (+5%), net profit down 6% to $2.4 billion
• Theme parks drove growth; entertainment and sports profits declined 35% and 23%, respectively
• Cash flow under pressure from taxes and content investments

While diversification offers some buffer, content renewal risks remain, impacting Australian streaming users and advertisers.

V. US Tech Giants and Sector Trends

Storage Sector Strong, Tech Sector Divergence

Stock Performance (Feb 3)

• Nvidia: -2.89% (chip outlook adjustment)
• Google (Alphabet): +1.68%
• Apple: +4.06% (improved consumer electronics demand)
• Microsoft: -1.61%
• Amazon: +1.53%
• Meta: -1.41%
• Tesla: -2%

Leading Stocks

Storage chip stocks rose over 6%, with SanDisk +15.44%, Micron +5.52%. Driven by data center demand recovery and supply chain improvements.

This sector divergence influences the international tech weighting of the Australian index, with close attention needed on supply chain recovery progress.

VI. Macro and Policy Highlights

US Employment Data Delay: Increased Uncertainty

Due to the government shutdown, the Labor Department postponed January employment report and December job openings data. The bipartisan budget agreement has been passed by the Senate, with the House expected to end the shutdown by Tuesday.

Data delays heighten policy uncertainty, indirectly weighing on global risk assets, including the Australian index.

US-India Trade Agreement: Tariffs Significantly Reduced

Trump announced an agreement with Modi:

• US tariffs on Indian goods cut from 25% to 18%
• India commits to reducing trade barriers and increasing US imports by $50 billion
• Modi agreed to cease Russian oil purchases, shifting to US and Venezuelan energy

This breakthrough eases global trade tensions and supports the Australian index, given India’s large demand for Australian iron ore.

Strong ISM Manufacturing PMI

US January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6 (vs. 48.5 forecast), with expansion in new orders, production, and employment reaching its highest in the year. Prices hit a four-month high, indicating accelerating manufacturing activity.

This data boosts confidence in global economic recovery, benefiting resource and consumer stocks in the Australian index.

VII. Australian Central Bank Decision and Market Outlook

Rate Decision Preview (02:30 GMT+0)

The RBA will announce its latest rate decision, with markets expecting a cautious stance. Given global policy easing and subdued inflation expectations, the RBA may retain flexibility for future adjustments.

This decision will directly influence the Australian index:

• Hawkish tilt (rate hikes) → stronger AUD, higher index
• Dovish tilt (rate cuts) → weaker AUD, short-term pressure but long-term growth benefits

VIII. Market Summary and Investment Guidance

Bitget Research Center believes that the global market rebound is driven by:

1. Strong ISM data exceeding expectations, accelerating US industrial growth, supported by policy
2. Precious metals rebound as dollar depreciation expectations ease, risk assets regain favor
3. Policy coordination signals — US-India trade deal, Powell nomination — indicating diminishing global risks, benefiting risk assets like the Australian index
4. Cryptocurrency acceleration — recent surges in BTC and ETH (compared to Feb 3 data), signaling a new liquidity cycle

Implications for Australian investors:

• The Australian index correlates positively with global liquidity cycles; upcoming RBA and Fed policies are key
• Commodity recovery favors resource exporters, but watch for transmission to weaker sectors like autos
• Cryptocurrency momentum remains strong, benefiting some high-growth Australian stocks, though volatility must be managed
• The Australian index has room to rise further, but close monitoring of US employment data delays and policy uncertainties is essential

Warning: This information is collected via AI retrieval and reviewed manually; it does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance.