BTC Swing Shorting · Market Analysis and Trading Guide (Captain's Navigation · March 11)

I. Market Analysis (Long-Term Perspective)

1. Trend Qualification

- Medium-Term Trend: Clear bearish outlook, highs continuously declining, rebounds are corrective, main downward structure remains unchanged.

- Short-Term Structure: Rebound faces resistance at 70,000, bulls unable to break through, bears regain control.

- Core Logic: 70,000–71,000 is a strong resistance zone; failure to break opens up space for a swing decline.

2. Key Swing Levels

- Swing Resistance: 70,000 → 70,500 → 71,200

- Swing Support: 69,300 → 68,800 → 68,000 → 67,000

- Bull-Bear Boundary: 70,500 (break above invalidates swing short positions)

3. Technical Signals (Swing Level)

- 4H/Daily Chart: Rebound lacks strength, bearish momentum prevails;

- Volume: No volume on rebound, increasing volume on decline, funds leaning bearish;

- Pattern: High-level pullback forming a descending channel, high probability of successful swing shorting.