Choking the Throat: Tehran's New Leader's First Move

March 13, 2026, for Iran, which had just lost its father in the joint U.S.-Israel strike, is a day to reaffirm national resolve. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Muqtada al-Husayni Khamenei, delivered his first nationwide address since taking office.

Through footage broadcast on national television, this new leader—who had never issued any written statement before and had long remained out of the public eye—sent a clear and unmistakable signal to the world: Iran will not retreat in the face of the attack on its core leadership. Instead, it will tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, the “throat” of global energy, using it as a strategic lever, and urged regional neighboring countries to “close U.S. military bases as soon as possible,” warning that otherwise these facilities would become legitimate targets for Iranian military strikes.

This statement was issued on the 13th day of the U.S.-Israel coalition’s “large-scale” airstrikes targeting Iranian targets, a critical moment when the entire nation was immersed in a wave of revenge and defiance.

1. Power transfer amid the flames of war

● Muqtada al-Husayni Khamenei’s rise to power was accompanied by thick smoke and a somber tone. His father, Ali Khamenei, who had led Iran for decades, was killed on February 28 during the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Tehran.

● Reports indicate that Muqtada was also injured in that attack. Although the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson later told the media that the Supreme Leader was “injured but in good condition,” this detail underscored the perilous situation at the heart of Iran’s power structure at that moment.

● In his opening remarks, Muqtada first expressed condolences for his father’s “heartbreaking martyrdom,” and candidly admitted that succeeding in this role “carries great responsibility.” He read out a seven-part statement on official television, which served not only as an explanation to the domestic public but also as an open declaration of war against hostile forces.

● Notably, U.S. media reports revealed that the reason this new Supreme Leader had never previously issued a written statement was due to strict security considerations—“fear of exposing his location and endangering safety.” Some Iranian officials stated that Muqtada is currently hiding in a highly secure location, with minimal contact with the outside world.

2. “If you don’t open, we’ll bomb”: the final warning to U.S. military bases

● Muqtada al-Husayni’s first appearance was marked by a stern warning to regional countries. He urged neighboring nations hosting U.S. military bases to immediately shut down these facilities.

● “The enemy has established military bases in some neighboring countries, some of which are used to attack Iran,” Muqtada emphasized in his statement. “Iran has not attacked its neighbors; it only targets enemy bases.” He clearly stated that if these facilities continue to operate, they will become legitimate targets for Iranian military strikes, and similar actions will be taken when necessary in the future.

● However, while issuing this military threat, the new leader also sought to reassure neighboring countries through tactical distancing. He explained that Tehran’s military operations are specifically aimed at U.S. facilities, not the neighboring countries themselves. “We believe in friendship with our neighbors; our targets are limited to bases, and we will inevitably continue these actions,” he said. He urged these countries to clarify their positions and called on them to close U.S. military bases as soon as possible, asserting that “the so-called security and peace brought by the U.S. are nothing but lies.”

● Iran’s military actions seem to confirm this threat. On the same day Muqtada delivered his speech, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisor Jafari claimed that Iran had destroyed “70% of U.S. military bases and command centers in the Middle East” over the past few days. Iran also released satellite images comparing before and after attacks on U.S. bases in Qatar’s Udeid and the UAE’s Zafar bases during “Operation True Commitment 4,” to demonstrate the effectiveness of their strikes.

3. Hormuz: tightening the noose on the global economy

● If closing U.S. bases is a targeted elimination of regional military presence, then blocking the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s “suffocating” blow to the global economic lifeline.

● Muqtada explicitly emphasized in his statement that Iran “should continue to close the Strait of Hormuz as a tool to pressure the enemy.” This stance is not empty talk. As the world’s most vital oil transit route, the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is causing severe shocks in global energy markets.

● The International Energy Agency (IEA), in a report released on the same day as Muqtada’s speech, warned that “the Middle East conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The total oil production in Gulf countries has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day. If shipping flows cannot be quickly restored, the supply losses will further expand.

● Markets are highly sensitive to these developments. Although the IEA announced that 32 member countries have unanimously approved releasing a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, this has not alleviated market panic. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that while the IEA’s release is large, it is still “pale in comparison” to the supply loss from the Strait of Hormuz—400 million barrels is only about four days’ worth of global daily oil demand.

● Data best illustrates the situation: Brent crude oil prices surged to a high of $101.59 per barrel. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains low throughout March, oil prices could exceed the peak levels seen in 2008.

4. Revenge economics: the logic of “an eye for an eye” compensation

● Beyond geopolitical and military toughness, Muqtada’s statement also contains a unique “revenge economics” approach. He promised free medical care for the injured and compensation for property losses, and proposed a primitive claims logic.

● “Iran will seek compensation from the enemy at all costs,” the statement read. “If the enemy refuses compensation, Iran will confiscate its assets. If confiscation is impossible, Iran will destroy assets of equivalent value.”

● This “eye for an eye” property claim logic extends the scope of conflict from military to economic domains. It not only accounts for victims of recent attacks (such as those killed in the Minab school incident) but also provides a legal basis for future actions targeting enemy assets.

5. Stalemates on the battlefield and the shadow of a “new front”

● Muqtada’s speech was not only defensive but also hinted at offensive intentions. He revealed that Iran “has studied other fronts where the enemy is inexperienced and highly vulnerable.” He warned that if the war continues and conditions are deemed appropriate, these fronts could be activated.

● This indicates that the current scale of conflict may just be the beginning. Analysts suggest that the so-called “new front” could include broader strikes against Israel, further interference with Red Sea shipping, or activating proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and other regions to launch coordinated attacks against U.S. and Israeli targets.

● On the same day, battlefield signs of escalation appeared. Iran’s IRGC announced the completion of the 40th and 41st waves of “Operation True Commitment 4,” conducting joint operations with Hezbollah against Israeli targets and U.S. bases in the Middle East. Israeli officials stated that this was the first time since the large-scale military actions by the U.S. and Israel that Iran and Hezbollah launched coordinated strikes against Israel.

● Meanwhile, Israel responded with its own actions. The Israeli military claimed to have launched a “large-scale airstrike” on Tehran and considered a “decisive” military operation in Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a press conference on the evening of the 12th, declared that Iran “is no longer what it used to be,” and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Badr militia had “suffered heavy blows.”

6. International reactions and diplomatic mediation

Faced with the tough stance of Iran’s new leader, the international community responded swiftly.

● The United States’ President Trump claimed on the same day that U.S. military power was “unmatched,” and that military operations against Iran were “progressing rapidly,” but also admitted that he did not want to withdraw prematurely, “we must complete the mission.” However, the high costs of the battlefield are raising domestic doubts. Pentagon officials told Congress that in the first six days of military action against Iran, over $11.3 billion had already been spent.

● Israel’s Defense Minister Katz stated that the operation “will not have a time limit and will continue as long as necessary.”

● Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that Russia has formulated proposals for mediating the Iran issue and is actively engaging in discussions. She also condemned the “indiscriminate attacks” by the U.S. and Israel on Iran as “shocking.”

Muqtada al-Husayni Khamenei’s first public statement, though strongly worded, sketches a strategic picture of both offense and defense: militarily, demonstrating deterrence through strikes on U.S. bases; geopolitically, tightening the Strait of Hormuz to choke the global economy; diplomatically, differentiating between neighboring countries and the U.S., trying to avoid complete regional isolation.

As analyst Dara Doyle noted, the market interprets the new Supreme Leader’s words as “quite tough,” with little sign that Iran is willing to make concessions to the U.S. or Israel. For this newly empowered leader, still bearing scars from recent conflicts, this war—already underway since his assumption of power—is a severe test and a “coming-of-age” ceremony to consolidate authority and build prestige.

When shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will resume depends on how this complex chess game unfolds. And Muqtada al-Husayni, the new Iranian figure emerging amid the flames of war, is trying to leverage his “last card” to tip the scales.