【Powell Data Dump Warning Tonight】

The Fed's second-to-last rate decision meeting kicks off tonight! Market expects a hold (probability near 0%), but this "farewell performance" will be anything but calm——Middle East escalation + sticky inflation + labor data rollercoaster, triple hit incoming, tonight could become a "hawk-dove showdown" spectacle!
Quick highlights 👇
1️⃣ Statement wording: Iran conflict likely gets mentioned, labor description possibly shifts from "stabilizing" back to "subdued." Goldman Sachs bets: acknowledgment of increased uncertainty; Morgan Stanley: inflation language unchanged, oil price surge likely downplayed.
2️⃣ Dissent vote mystery: January already saw 2 governors vote dovish (Milan & Waller), tonight Bowman might join! If 3 oppose rate cuts simultaneously, it'll set a record since 1988. Presidential nominees collectively "rebelling"—maximum drama.
3️⃣ Dot plot chaos: In December, 12 members bet on rate cuts this year, now only 3 need to flip to make the median projection zero. Goldman Sachs guesses: only one cut in 2026, another in 2027. But wartime forecasting is like opening a mystery box, the dots might scatter like stars ✨.
4️⃣ Economic projection battleground: Inflation expectations likely revised up (Core PCE potentially jumps from 2.5% to 2.7%), GDP growth revised down. Doves counter: oil price shock could suppress consumption, should actually cut rates!
5️⃣ Powell's trash-talking moment: Countdown to departure, how will he play up "flexibility"? Will reporters ask about the chair's future? The audience already brought popcorn.
Tonight is destined to be turbulent——either ends quietly or blows up the market. Waiting for 2 AM to see how "Chef Powell" executes this "farewell show"
#美联储决议 #鲍威尔 #点阵图 #中东局势 #通胀迷局 $BTC