Dow Jones Futures Rise As Oil Prices Retreat From $100; Nvidia GTC, Micron Earnings Ahead

2026-03-20 03:28:39

Dow Jones futures rose solidly early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. U.S. crude oil prices briefly topped $100 a barrel Sunday night but have reversed slightly lower. Chinese economic data came in stronger than expected.

The Nvidia (NVDA) GTC event and Micron Technology (MU) earnings loom, but oil futures and Iran war headlines will likely continue to drive the stock market action.

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Through Friday, the stock market fell for a third straight week as crude oil prices continued to surge with big swings. The major indexes are all at or nearly at 2026 lows.

Meta Platforms (META) is mulling laying off 20% or more of employees to offset artificial intelligence infrastructure bets, Reuters reported Friday night, citing sources. That also comes after a report of problems with its “Avocado” AI model.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give a keynote address Monday while Micron earnings are late Wednesday, both critical to the chip and AI infrastructure trade. Nvidia stock rose last week, but is hitting key resistance.

Micron stock surged into a buy area in a brand-new base. Fellow memory plays Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate Technology (STX) also were strong last week, setting up after a strong start to 2026.

Nvidia stock is on Leaderboard. Micron stock is on the IBD 50. Micron, Sandisk and Western Digital stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.8% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.1%.

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 1% to just above $97 a barrel after climbing Sunday evening to nearly $102.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.24%.

China’s January-February retail sales rose 2.8% vs. a year earlier, beating estimates for 2.5%. Industrial production grew 6.3%, above views for 5.3%. Fixed-asset investment climbed 1.8% vs. consensus for a 5.1% decline.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Iran War News

The Trump administration plans to announce as soon as this week a coalition of countries agreeing to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources. But it’s unclear if operations would begin before hostilities end. On Saturday, President Donald Trump called on other countries to send warships to help reopen the Strait, spurring cautious public responses. Iran said the Strait is open, except for the U.S. and its allies

Late Friday, the U.S. attacked military targets on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub. President Trump said he didn’t strike Kharg’s oil infrastructure, but threatened to.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally last week saw the key indexes fall for a third straight week as Iran war news and surging oil prices pressure equities. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 undercut recent lows on Friday while the Nasdaq fell below its 200-day moving average. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are just above that long-term support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index slumped 1.6%. The Nasdaq composite retreated 1.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 stepped down 1.8%.

The S&P 500 and Dow undercut their March 9 lows on Friday, ending their rally attempts. The Nasdaq just held its March 9 lows, so its rally attempt is hanging on by a thread. Technically a Nasdaq follow-through day is still possible any day, though it would likely be viewed with skepticism.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) lost 2.3%, tumbling from the 50-day line to a two-month low.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.28%. The Federal Reserve meets this week, but policymakers aren’t expected to make any moves before the summer or fall.

U.S. crude oil futures soared 8.6% to $98.71 a barrel last week, their highest close since July 2022. Oil prices have skyrocketed 57% over the last four weeks.

The U.S. and other major nations agreed to a record release of petroleum reserves, but tanker attacks, production cuts and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz are pushing prices of crude oil, natural gas higher, as well as fertilizer and key chemicals.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) tumbled 4.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 1.8%, with Nvidia and Micron major SMH holdings.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) retreated 3% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) plunged 6.3%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) gave up 1% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) climbed 2% while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) shed 1.9%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) skidded 3.1% lower.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) slumped 3.3%

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Nvidia GTC

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will give a keynote address at 11 a.m. PT Monday at the company’s GTC conference. He’s expected to discuss Nvidia’s advances across the AI technology stack. That should include a new, energy-efficient processor for AI inferencing using technology licensed from AI startup Groq.

Meanwhile, there are rumors that Nvidia’s next-generation AI process, Rubin, will be delayed to memory shortages.

Nvidia stock rose 1.4% to 1280.25 last week, but hit resistance at the 50-day line after rebounding from the 200-day line. NVDA stock has a 212.19 buy point, according to MarketSurge, but investors could use 197.63 as an early entry.

Micron Earnings

Micron earnings are due Wednesday night, with investors expecting a 463% EPS gain with revenue up 57%. The expectation is that the memory-chip giant will remain bullish on memory pricing and demand.

MU stock vaulted 15.1% this past week to 426.13 in a big upside, outside week, roaring back above the 50-day line. Micron has a new base with a 455.50 buy point, with 436.89 as an early entry. On Friday, shares hit a trendline, offering an aggressive entry but with earnings on tap.

Other Memory Stocks

Sandisk stock skyrocketed 25.5% to 661.62 last week in a big, upside move from the 10-week line. Along the way, SNDK stock raced past a shakeout + 3 entry. The flash memory play now has a double-bottom base with a 691.54 buy point. Investors could use the March 11 high of 655.68 as an early entry.

Seagate stock leaped 8.8% to 383.71 last week. The hard-drive maker regained its 50-day line on Monday and clearing the 21-day line on Friday. STX stock is working on a new base. Investors could use the 400 level as an entry from the 50-day, short-term highs and a trendline.

Seagate rival Western Digital popped 4.3% to 272.29, also above the 50-day and 21-day line. Investors could use Tuesday’s intraday high of 280.75. WDC stock still has a three-weeks-tight entry of 309.90.

How Memory Tech Emerged As An AI Blockbuster

What To Do Now

The stock market has been in a sideways pattern for months, with a downward bias for the past several weeks. It’s hard to see the market decisively moving higher with oil prices so high and in danger of spiking higher.

In that environment, investors should largely be in cash, aside from long-term winners. But that could change at any time, with a lot of market-moving news in the coming week. So be ready, staying engaged with up-to-date watchlists.

In addition to Nvidia GTC and Micron earnings, Alibaba (BABA), FedEx (FDX) and Five Below (FIVE) are among companies reporting next week.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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