#分享预测赢1000GT Are U.S.-Iran Relations About to Ease? It's Just Another Familiar Repeat of the Same Old Script

The conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has now reached a symbolic turning point.

In recent days, there have been frequent reports of international mediation and secret resumption of U.S.-Iran negotiations, indicating that Iran has actually withstood the first wave of attacks and, through its asymmetric counterstrikes, has gained certain leverage. Especially the move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which has not only tied the global economy to the war machine but also subjected Trump to enormous political pressure both internationally and domestically.

Many people believe that based on this, both sides have established a foundation for peace talks. Indeed, Trump has been constantly signaling, either explicitly or implicitly, his desire to end the war. Yesterday, an "epic" piece of good news was reported, claiming that the U.S. and Iran have "formed key points of agreement." Suddenly, international crude oil prices plummeted, U.S. stocks climbed back up from the floor, and stock markets in some other countries and regions showed rebounds.

Of course, everyone here has been burned before. As for Trump's mouth, most people have some understanding of it. Especially with the Americans continuously reinforcing troops in the Persian Gulf, if you say Trump's peace talks are sincere, probably even the dumbest person wouldn't believe it. The reality is plain to see: Trump must win this war.

Having spent so much money, deployed so much military force, lost so many military assets, turned the Gulf region into a complete mess, and offended so many allies—if Trump cannot end this war in a manner that serves American interests, he will absolutely face a counteroffensive and reckoning from the establishment at home. Add to that the fact that starting a war with Iran has caused a split in his base of "Make America Great Again" followers, and Trump could easily become a lonely figure. Don't even mention the midterm elections; Trump's political life faces the risk of termination.

Trump is someone whose house was raided by the establishment; he certainly understands that if his political life ends, his entire family, old and young, could face liquidation. As for the other side of the negotiating table, the Iranians have suffered such harm and humiliation, and now they control the Strait of Hormuz as their bargaining chip. Would they bow down and hand over the benefits that would let Trump "win"?

At this point, even if there are some spineless or two-faced figures in Iran's upper echelons, or even traitors who have already been bought off, no matter how willing they are to compromise, they dare not risk being drowned in the spit of the Iranian people (especially the vast numbers of lower-class Shia believers scattered across remote areas and rural regions) by making peace with America. After all, you've killed their head of state and "pope."

Those who understand Iranian history know that Iran is fundamentally different from Venezuela. It is an ancient civilization with cultural attributes; combined with religious influences, as long as there is no internal strife, Iranians place dignity above survival.

This point should be something that the people of the East, also born from ancient civilizations, can understand. So, even if it's true as Trump says that U.S. and Iranian diplomats are negotiating secretly, the demands of both sides are necessarily worlds apart and simply cannot reach agreement. Such negotiations are likely, for both sides, nothing more than delaying tactics—a breather before fighting again.

One role that cannot be overlooked is Israel. Whether the U.S. and Iran can reach an agreement ultimately comes down to what Israel says. And Israel fundamentally does not want a ceasefire. In Netanyahu's words, this is a war he has been planning for forty years. If Iran is not completely defeated and destroyed, if they cannot achieve a "Greater Israel Empire," Netanyahu and the Zionist forces behind him will never stop.

We can even now assert that the killing of Khamenei and the assassination of Larijani are both important parts of Netanyahu's broader strategy against Iran. The goal is to eliminate figures within Iran's regime who have the willingness and capability to reach an agreement with the U.S., thereby pushing the war to its conclusion. (Following this logic, the current Iranian speaker of parliament Qalibaf, who is leading negotiations with the U.S., is also in danger.) Israel simply wants to completely cut off America's way back.

From the very beginning of the airstrikes on Iran, once the fighting starts, the U.S. can no longer control the progression of the war according to its own wishes; it is necessarily ensnared by Israel's strategic interests. Trump can only keep raising the stakes at the poker table. Deploying ground troops to Iran is his final means and only way to end this mess. This is a highly probable scenario; one could even say both sides are making final phase preparations for this moment. Even if there are peace talks, they are merely preparations in public opinion and tactics for the expansion of hostilities to come.

The storm will arrive even more fiercely! If this unfortunate prediction proves correct, the situation in Iran will become a fuse for a series of global geopolitical upheavals to follow, and the world as we know it will undergo permanent, unrecognizable change. All of humanity, after years of rapid decline, has now arrived at another cliff edge... At this very moment, perhaps only the Israelis are smiling.