Many people ask me why I'm going long at this time. Let me explain my trading logic here tonight.

First, the Middle East situation will gradually have less impact on the crypto space as time goes on, just like the Russia-Ukraine war. Everyone understands the "boy who cried wolf" story—a ceasefire and negotiations are just a matter of time. The main thing is that Trump's mouth won't stop running—one moment talking about fighting, the next about negotiations, causing the market to go haywire. It's very obvious his real intention lies elsewhere; he's a famous k-line master, those in the know understand.

Second, putting aside news sentiment and returning to technical structure analysis, we're currently in a rebound phase. Bitcoin has been oscillating at the bottom for two months already, with highs and lows continuously compressing the trading range, which suggests breaking out of the box is not far off. Of course, the major trend is still downward, but during this process we need rebounds to accumulate energy and test resistance, and then accelerate lower again.

Third, we're currently in this rebound phase. The daily line is stabilizing above the Bollinger Band middle track, and Bitcoin's closing prices over the past two days have both been above the 70,000 level, indicating there's still support below in the short term. If we look at it from a correction perspective, the bulls need to at least test around 74,300, while the previous high was at 76,000. This means there's still roughly 3,000-4,000 points of space above. Wait patiently for this rebound to complete, then go short on the pullback after testing.