Cocoa Futures Face Mounting Pressure as Global Supplies Surge and Demand Weakens

According to the latest barchart data and market analysis, cocoa futures have entered a prolonged decline as a confluence of factors—abundant global supplies, tepid buyer interest, and weakening chocolate demand—continues to exert downward pressure on prices. May ICE NY cocoa contracts dropped 155 points, or 5.06%, while March ICE London cocoa futures fell 100 points, declining 4.69%. The selloff has been relentless, with prices now posting two-and-three-quarter-year lows as market participants reassess fundamental conditions across the cocoa supply chain.

Supply Dynamics Reshaping the Cocoa Futures Landscape

The immediate catalyst for weakness in cocoa futures stems from a dramatic imbalance between production and consumption. StoneX’s January assessment projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season, with an additional 267,000 MT surplus expected for 2026/27—a signal of persistent oversupply that weighs heavily on barchart cocoa futures pricing models. Adding to bearish sentiment, the International Cocoa Organization reported that global cocoa inventories rose 4.2% year-over-year to 1.1 million metric tons as of late January, indicating that supply buildup outpaces absorption.

ICE cocoa inventories have swelled to a 5.75-month high, reaching 2,155,913 bags as of Thursday’s close. This inventory expansion reflects a troubling dynamic: international cocoa buyers are increasingly reluctant to purchase at the official farm-gate prices set by West Africa’s dominant producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana. In response to weak buyer demand, both nations have slashed their official cocoa prices—Ghana by nearly 30% and Ivory Coast by a projected 35%—in an effort to move inventory. Such aggressive pricing cuts underscore the acute pressure facing cocoa markets globally.

Favorable weather conditions across West Africa are compounding the oversupply narrative. Tropical General Investments Group recently noted that improved growing conditions are expected to bolster the February-March mid-crop harvest in Ivory Coast and Ghana, as farmers report larger and healthier cocoa pods relative to the prior-year period. The Ivory Coast’s mid-crop typically represents approximately 25% of annual production and is estimated at 400,000 to 450,000 MT this year. Additionally, Nigeria—the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer—has reported a 17% year-over-year increase in December cocoa exports, reaching 54,799 MT, further adding to global supply pressure.

Consumer Appetite Collapse Hammers Cocoa Demand and Prices

Demand-side weakness is equally problematic for cocoa futures valuations. Barry Callebaut AG, the planet’s largest bulk chocolate manufacturer, disclosed a stark 22% decline in sales volume within its cocoa division during the quarter ending November 30. The company attributed the drop to “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa”—a euphemism for consumers balking at elevated chocolate prices resulting from prior cocoa cost spikes.

Grinding data across major consuming regions paint a bleak picture. European cocoa grindings collapsed 8.3% year-over-year in Q4 to 304,470 MT, substantially underperforming expectations of a 2.9% decline and marking the weakest Q4 performance in a dozen years. Asian cocoa grindings retreated 4.8% year-over-year to 197,022 MT in the same quarter. North American grind rates were nearly flat, rising just 0.3% year-over-year to 103,117 MT, signaling stagnant demand across the Western hemisphere. Mondelez, another major chocolate manufacturer, recently disclosed that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa stands 7% above the five-year average, reinforcing expectations that abundant supply and weak demand will continue pressuring cocoa futures prices.

West Africa’s Policy Shifts and Production Outlook

A critical variable affecting cocoa futures markets is the divergent production trajectory expected from the region’s key suppliers. Ivory Coast has projected a 10.8% year-over-year production decline to 1.65 million metric tons in 2025/26, down from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25. This reduction offers some fundamental support. However, delivery patterns to Ivorian ports tell a more nuanced story—as of Monday’s cumulative data, farmers had shipped 1.31 million metric tons to ports during the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through February 22, 2026), representing a 3.7% decrease from 1.36 MMT in the equivalent prior-year window.

Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production will slide 11% year-over-year to 305,000 MT in 2025/26, down from a projected 344,000 MT in 2024/25. These production declines theoretically provide some lift to cocoa futures valuations, yet they have proven insufficient to counterbalance the combined pressure from West African inventory accumulation and subdued global demand.

Market Context: Long-Term Cocoa Fundamentals

Providing historical context for today’s cocoa futures selloff: the International Cocoa Organization estimated a 2024/25 global surplus of 49,000 MT in December, marking the first surplus in four years. At that juncture, ICCO also reported that global cocoa production in 2024/25 had climbed 7.4% year-over-year to 4.69 million metric tons. More recently, Rabobank trimmed its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus forecast to 250,000 MT from an earlier November projection of 328,000 MT—a downward revision that nonetheless sustains the view that oversupply will persist as a headwind for cocoa futures pricing in the quarters ahead.

The confluence of ample supplies, reluctant buyers, and collapsing chocolate consumption has left cocoa futures with few near-term catalysts for recovery. Until demand stabilizes or production adjusts more meaningfully, barchart cocoa futures are likely to trade under structural pressure, with prices stabilizing only when supply-and-demand dynamics reach a more sustainable equilibrium.