- Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Market Sentiment, and the Iranian War on Bitcoin:

Bitcoin's price has continued to decline since reaching an all-time high of $126,199 in October, leading to risk aversion among investors across various markets. Among the factors exacerbating this risk aversion and limiting any potential recovery are: the sell-off wave experienced in the market on October 10, the macroeconomic uncertainty following the Federal Reserve's decision to pause the monetary easing cycle, and geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin treasury companies are not immune to broader headwinds, as their holdings of 1.02 million BTC have decreased in value from approximately $108 billion in October to $72.34 billion on Friday.

Bitcoin owned by public companies | Source: SoSoValue

The Iranian war continues to negatively impact market sentiment, with risk appetite declining. Global high-risk assets remain in a precarious position amid rising oil prices. Central banks worldwide are preparing for long-term economic repercussions, with inflation likely to rise, potentially constraining growth.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance on interest rate cuts due to the Iranian war. Investors now widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged for a much longer period into 2026, a significant shift from previous forecasts that indicated at least two rate cuts. Currently, investors estimate about a 96% probability that the central bank will keep rates steady within the 3.50% to 3.75% range by the end of April.

FedWatch Tool | Source: CME Group

- Technical Analysis: Bitcoin at Risk of Continued Heavy Selling:
Bitcoin is hovering above $66,500 as of this report on Friday. The short-term trend leans toward a slight decline, with the price falling below the 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages, keeping Bitcoin in a broader correction phase despite recent attempts to stabilize.

Momentum has waned, as the MACD indicator has moved into negative territory, and red bars on the daily chart have expanded, indicating ongoing selling pressure. The RSI remains near 41, below the midpoint of 50 on the same chart, suggesting the market is experiencing selling pressure rather than a sustainable breakout.

Daily chart for BTC/USDT

Bitcoin faces initial resistance at $68,820, coinciding with its daily high. A daily close above this level would open the door toward the psychological $70,000 zone, followed by the 50-day exponential moving average at $71,824.

On the downside, immediate support aligns with the SuperTrend indicator at $66,189. A break below this level could reveal a late-range bottom near $65,000. If the price drops further, downside momentum could extend toward the February low of $60,000.
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