#国际油价走高 Oil prices, soaring!

As Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen join the Middle East conflict and more U.S. troops arrive in the region, investors are concerned that the escalating conflict will bring more uncertainty to the energy markets. International oil prices experienced sharp fluctuations during Asian trading hours on March 30. As of 9:40 a.m. Beijing time, both WTI and Brent crude futures rose over 3%, with WTI briefly hovering around $103 per barrel and Brent surpassing $108 per barrel.
Additionally, influenced by the Middle East conflict and rising U.S. bond yields, London spot gold and silver prices declined significantly during the Asian trading session on the 30th, with spot gold dropping over 1% at one point and spot silver falling nearly 3%. By 10:00 a.m. Beijing time, both metals' declines had narrowed.
Houthi involvement puts key international shipping routes under further pressure
The Strait of Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz together form two major "throats" of Middle Eastern oil exports. The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, serving as a "water corridor" linking the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans. Its narrowest point is about 30 kilometers, earning it the nickname as the "waterway connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa." Data shows that approximately 12% of global trade and nearly an equivalent share of maritime oil trade pass through the Strait of Mandeb. During previous conflicts between Israel and Palestine, Houthi forces in Yemen retaliated against Israeli-related ships in the Red Sea by attacking them multiple times, demonstrating their military capability to cover the Red Sea region.
Analysts believe that if both the Strait of Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are blockaded simultaneously, it could further drive crude oil prices higher. This would force the global economy to face a series of severe pressures, including shipping paralysis, rising logistics costs, energy shortages leading to runaway inflation, and manufacturing cuts due to raw material supply disruptions.
Experts: Escalation of Middle East conflict could lead to sustained increases in international oil prices
Nearly a month after the outbreak of the Israel-U.S.-Iran conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and the global energy supply system is being disturbed, causing international oil prices to surge. Experts believe that market sentiment is pessimistic about the prospects of a quick resolution and normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Israel have raised concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Mandeb.
If both straits are blocked, oil prices will likely rise further
Professor Wan Zhe, Economics Expert at Beijing Normal University: The core trigger remains the sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to panic on the supply side and a predominantly defensive market trend.
Currently, shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted over 90%, nearly coming to a halt. Gulf oil-producing countries, even with spare capacity, cannot export, and Russia has even indicated it will ban exports to secure domestic supply, sharply increasing the global supply gap.
Extreme risks are also escalating, with expectations of a Mandeb Strait blockade intensifying. The double choke points could worsen supply disruptions. Iran has explicitly warned about opening a new front here, and its ally, the Houthi rebels, have also said they are ready. Markets are beginning to price in the extreme risk of cutting off the second-largest energy choke point, with ripple effects on logistics and costs further pushing up oil prices.
Geopolitical conflicts are causing global shipping insurers to significantly raise war risk premiums for oil tankers. Meanwhile, the number of tankers willing to operate on Middle Eastern routes has sharply decreased, with capacity under extreme strain and freight rates doubling. Additionally, ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope increase voyage time and costs, which will be reflected in crude oil prices at the destination.
Furthermore, risk aversion during the weekend window has driven prices higher at the close. Since crude futures markets are closed over the weekend, any sudden major event could not be traded.
To avoid liquidation risks, traders have been buying long positions and closing short positions on Friday, pushing oil prices to near their highest levels since the conflict began.
Duration of the conflict and other factors will influence international oil price trends
Professor Wan Zhe, Economics Expert at Beijing Normal University: Historically, the duration and extent of oil price increases triggered by Middle East conflicts depend on the development of geopolitical situations. The 1973 Yom Kippur War led to a rise in international oil prices, sparking the first oil crisis and causing a severe global recession. The 1978 Iranian Islamic Revolution triggered the second oil crisis. Then, the Iran-Iraq War in 1980, with two major oil-producing countries halting production, lasted longer. After the Gulf War in 1990, oil prices surged, but the IEA coordinated the release of strategic reserves, and prices quickly returned to pre-war levels.
Current circumstances suggest that the scale of supply shocks could surpass previous events. Geopolitical uncertainties are higher, with spillover risks escalating and even the potential for a broader Middle Eastern conflict. Market panic is stronger than during past localized wars.
For future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Houthi attacks continue but without a full blockade of Mandeb, and no major diplomatic breakthroughs occur, prices should stay above $100. If the Mandeb Strait is also blocked, cutting off both key channels, and the conflict expands to more countries, oil prices will likely continue to rise. Conversely, if there are significant diplomatic breakthroughs and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, prices could quickly fall below $100.