The world is beginning to slide toward irrational decision-making.

For a while, I believed Russia and Ukraine would cease fire.
There were constant reports that negotiations were close, but there was no substantial progress.
Later, I realized that my thinking had been shaped by decades of peaceful times in the past.
Everything in the past had room for rational discussion and negotiation.
But in the war swamp of a prolonged conflict, there is no such space, because negotiating means betraying those who have already sacrificed, and the first to surrender also lose their voice in the negotiations.
As a result, both sides fall into a deadlock of escalating to force the other to surrender first, until one side can no longer hold on.
What should be recognized is that the probability of weak nations being taken down by military superpowers with lightning-fast strikes is gradually decreasing.
Asymmetric attrition, decentralized command plans—these are the sharp tools that the weak have developed over decades.
When the lightning-fast blitzkrieg in the sandbox turns into a war of attrition, the influence of military hegemons will be strongly questioned.
“The 1956 Suez Canal Crisis is widely seen as the critical turning point and symbolic ‘fall’ marking the decline of Britain’s status as a global hegemon.
Military actions may seem advantageous but fall into strategic quagmires, with economic and political costs far exceeding expectations, exposing the limitations of hegemonic power.”
This is similar to today’s Middle East conflict.
Perhaps another script of hegemon’s fall is already loading.
Today, another piece of news caught my attention.
Warren Buffett said the likelihood of using nuclear weapons is increasing.
Without resorting to nuclear weapons, ongoing attrition continues to accumulate hatred, and at some point, nuclear weapons might be brought to the table.
Even if used, it would be condemned worldwide, but before that happens, the opponent could be destroyed first.
It reminds me of a previous poll on Polymarket, where there was a 30% chance of nuclear weapons being used within the year, but that question was quickly taken down, fearing someone might be tempted to trigger nuclear war.
There are very few peaceful periods in history; we may have entered another chaotic era.
Everything might slide toward destruction.
Next:
All ceasefire agreements are to buy “no”
All potential conflicts are to buy “yes”
Win and make money
Lose and the world gains
Don’t ask me if I won or lost—I made the profit.