Market Strategy Tips (April 3 — April 6, Pre-Holiday to Present)

Market Analysis
Since the holiday, the market has been in an extreme tug-of-war phase characterized by "better-than-expected non-farm data hawkish pricing + full escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts + strong dollar and US bonds suppression." Gold surged to a record high before the Easter holiday market closure and then quickly retreated. After the market reopened, it faced downward pressure, showing a pattern of high-level wide-range fluctuations with increasing bullish and bearish divergence; the crypto market bottomed out at around 64k before rebounding, with Bitcoin stabilizing above 68k, and mainstream coins strengthening simultaneously, reflecting an oversold correction and marginal inflow of institutional funds in a weak rebound pattern.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic has shifted to "long-term confirmation of Fed’s high interest rates + strong non-farm data pricing + life-and-death game over Middle East geopolitical conflicts," with market expectations for rate cuts this year completely frozen. On April 3, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March non-farm employment report, showing 178k new jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 65k, the highest since December 2024, revised down from -133k; the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.3%, below expectations and the previous 4.4%, indicating the labor market's resilience far exceeds expectations. After the data release, CME FedWatch indicated a 99.5% probability of no rate change in April, with the probability of a rate cut in June dropping below 2%. The market is pricing in only one rate cut for the entire year, with the first cut pushed back to after September. Maintaining high interest rates longer has become a consensus. The dollar index remains above 104.85, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.39%, with real interest rates continuing to climb, exerting medium- to long-term pressure on gold, cryptocurrencies, and other non-yield assets. The Middle East geopolitical situation has entered a critical window; the 48-hour ultimatum issued by Trump to Iran expired on April 6. The U.S. demands Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or face expanded strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure. Iran has refused to compromise, continuing to blockade the Strait and conducting the 95th wave of counterattacks, with spillover effects intensifying. Brent crude oil remains stable above $110 per barrel, with inflation concerns slightly warming, but safe-haven funds still prioritize the dollar and U.S. bonds. Gold’s safe-haven premium has temporarily faded, and global risk appetite remains low and volatile.
2. Gold surged to a record high before the holiday and then quickly retreated. After the holiday, it opened under pressure, with hawkish macro factors and geopolitical safe-haven support creating a two-way tug-of-war, intensifying high-level fluctuations. London Gold fell to a low of $4,554.04 per ounce before rebounding to $4,800.3, setting a new record high. After the holiday, on April 6, it opened under pressure and plunged, currently trading at $4,632.03, down 0.44% for the day, with a low of $4,608.30. COMEX gold futures also weakened, currently at $4,646.7, down 0.71%. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold continuous contract closed at 1033 yuan/gram before the holiday, with T+D at 1034.79 yuan/gram, and retail prices at brand gold shops maintaining between 1382-1445 yuan/gram. The core drivers of this round of gold price movements are: first, unexpectedly strong non-farm data reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations, with both the dollar and U.S. bonds rising sharply, mainly suppressing gold; second, escalating Middle East conflicts providing safe-haven support at the bottom, with long-term central bank gold purchases unchanged, supported by rigid physical demand below $4,600; third, holiday liquidity was low, and profit-taking and stop-loss orders after opening caused short-term volatility. The main suppressors remain: since March, global gold ETFs have net outflows exceeding $11.5 billion, continuing slight outflows before the holiday, with institutional long positions reducing holdings and the trend of rising U.S. real interest rates not reversing. Key levels: support at $4,610–$4,590, strong support at $4,550 (a previous key level; breaking below opens downside); resistance at $4,660–$4,680, strong resistance at $4,750–$4,800 (near historical highs, with strong bullish resistance).
3. The crypto market bottomed out before the holiday and then rebounded sharply, with Bitcoin reclaiming the critical $66k level. Marginal improvement in liquidity and market sentiment moved away from extreme fear, showing a weak correction pattern. Bitcoin dipped to a low of $64,120 before rebounding steadily, reaching a high of $68,484.4 on April 6, with a 1.67% increase in the past 24 hours, currently stabilizing above $68k in Asian trading. Ethereum also strengthened, now at $2,091.06, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours, with all major coins rising. Regarding funds and on-chain data: BTC spot ETFs ended several days of net outflows, with a slight net inflow of $21.4 million on the last trading day before the holiday. Fidelity’s FBTC continued to increase holdings, and Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows significantly narrowed, easing institutional selling pressure. The 24-hour total liquidation of futures contracts was 87k traders, with a total of $186 million in liquidations, 62% of which were shorts, indicating short covering after oversold conditions as a key driver of the rebound. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows exceeding 12k coins daily, with large whale addresses accumulating in the $64k–$66k range. Large transfers of thousands of coins increased holdings to 65%, marginally raising concentration. The crypto fear and greed index rose to 28, moving away from extreme fear, indicating some market sentiment recovery, but overall on-chain activity remains low, with gas fees at medium-low levels. Large-scale capital inflows are not yet evident, and the market remains dominated by existing holdings. Technically, the daily chart successfully reclaimed the previous strong support at $66k, easing short-term bearish trends, but the $68k–$70k resistance zone remains strong, and a fundamental reversal in the medium term has not yet occurred.
Special Reminder
Gold remains in a high-level wide-range fluctuation cycle. The unexpectedly strong non-farm data further reinforce the macro pressure of the Fed’s prolonged high interest rates. Middle East geopolitical safe-haven support only provides a bottom floor and does not drive a bullish reversal. Resistance above $4,680 is very strong. Additionally, with Trump’s ultimatum expiring on April 6, geopolitical uncertainty is extreme. Post-holiday liquidity shortages may trigger gap volatility. Do not blindly chase longs or bottom-fish; strictly control positions, only attempt small long positions within the $4,590–$4,610 support zone, with a strict stop-loss at $4,550. Consider reducing positions on rallies above $4,660, and maintain tight risk controls throughout. Prioritize avoiding uncertainty risks.
Although crypto rebounded from around 64k, with marginal liquidity improvement and a short-term recovery above 66k, the overall still remains in a correction cycle after the previous decline. The strong resistance zone of 68,000–70k has not been effectively broken through, and market sentiment remains fragile. Short-term volatility risks are high. Avoid heavy chasing or contrarian bottom-fishing; keep positions below 30%. Only consider incremental buying if the market stabilizes above 70k with increasing volume, volatility continues to decline, and ETF net inflows persist. If the price again breaks below 66k, the current rebound trend will end, and risk management should be prioritized, with a wait-and-see approach recommended.