Last week, the gold market experienced intense volatility, showcasing a classic "roller coaster" pattern. Gold prices attempted to break through the $4,800 level but were sharply rejected, dropping to a low of around $4,461. The weekly close was near $4,675. In this morning's trading, the market's weak sentiment persisted, with a rapid decline at the open testing the 4600 level. Although there was a brief rebound at this level, the overall pattern remains in a wide-range correction.

The deep correction in gold prices is essentially the result of a resonance of dual macroeconomic bearish factors: a reversal of rate cut expectations—U.S. non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, directly shattering the market's mainstream bets on a June Fed rate cut—leading to increased holding costs for gold; and policy pressure—Trump's latest statements further reinforced market fears of risk aversion and tightening. These dual shocks caused the US dollar index and Treasury yields to strengthen simultaneously, putting obvious pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Currently, short-term bearish momentum dominates.
From a technical perspective, the previous upward trend line on the 1-hour chart has been effectively broken, and the rebound and pullback candlestick pattern indicates a short-term top formation. The $4,800 resistance zone has become a strong barrier, making it difficult for bulls to mount an effective rebound in the near term. The $4,538–$4,482 range is the core defense zone for bulls and a key dividing line for medium-term strength or weakness. Given that the bearish momentum has not yet been fully released and resistance levels are heavy overhead, it is advisable to adopt a trend-following short position strategy.

Gold rebounding near 4650–4680, short below 4580–4500
#假期持币指南 $XAU