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Based on historical cases such as the US-Iran crisis in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the correlation between BTC and the stock market (S&P 500) during geopolitical conflicts exhibits a pattern of “strong short-term correlation and weak long-term correlation.” At the moment of conflict outbreak, BTC often drops in tandem with US stocks (risk asset properties); however, during the ongoing conflict, BTC frequently outperforms the stock market, demonstrating its potential as an inflation hedge or safe haven.

Historical Performance Review During Conflicts

2020 US-Iran Conflict (Soleimani Incident)

Initial Response: After the US military airstrike, BTC and the US stock market (S&P 500) declined simultaneously, with safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil being the first choices.

Subsequent Divergence: As the conflict did not escalate further, BTC quickly rebounded after panic subsided, outperforming the S&P 500 within 30 days, beginning to show resilience independent of traditional equities.

2022 Russia-Ukraine War

This is a typical case of “correlation switching”:

At the outbreak (strong correlation): On the day war broke out, global risk assets were sold off indiscriminately, with BTC and the S&P 500 falling together. The 60-day correlation once soared to 0.6 (1 indicates perfect synchronization).

During the ongoing war (decoupling): In the following weeks, US stocks remained subdued due to sanctions and inflation expectations, while BTC rose approximately 20% driven by cross-border payment needs (Ukraine fundraising, Russia evading sanctions), outperforming stock indices.

2023–2024 Israel and Iran Conflicts

Panic Resonance: During the initial outbreak, BTC again fell along with Nasdaq tech stocks, with single-day declines even exceeding those of the stock market.

Recovery Ability: In the context where the conflict did not escalate into a world war, BTC’s rebound speed and magnitude were usually faster than tech stocks suppressed by macroeconomic factors (interest rate hikes).

Correlation Logic and Asset Attribute Evolution

1. “High Beta” Attribute During Panic

In the immediate aftermath of a black swan conflict, BTC is viewed by the market as a “high-volatility risk asset.” Leveraged funds and macro funds, in order to replenish liquidity, tend to sell off both stocks and cryptocurrencies simultaneously, causing them to decline in positive correlation.

2. “Value Discovery” Attribute During the Sustained Phase

Once the market digests the war risk, BTC’s fundamental logic begins to take effect:

Alternative Financial Channel: If conflicts cause regional banking paralysis or capital controls (e.g., Russia-Ukraine), BTC’s practical value becomes prominent, attracting specific capital inflows.

Inflation Hedge Expectations: War-driven energy prices push up, reinforcing BTC’s narrative as “digital gold” to counter currency devaluation, leading to better performance than stocks dragged down by corporate earnings.

Implications for the Current US-Iran Situation

Combining the “Trump last ultimatum,” historical experience offers two key clues:

If the situation escalates tomorrow: BTC is highly likely to follow the US stock market (especially the Nasdaq) in a sharp decline, which is a “contagion” caused by liquidity panic rather than a fundamental collapse.

If the situation reaches a stalemate: Within 2-4 weeks after the conflict erupts, if it does not trigger a global recession, BTC often recovers its losses first and may even develop an independent trend, because its pricing logic includes an additional “sovereign credit hedge” dimension.

Conclusion: Do not expect BTC to behave as a “safe haven asset” immediately at the outbreak of a geopolitical conflict. It usually first takes a hit along with the stock market, then, leveraging its censorship resistance and scarcity characteristics, it “bounces back first.”