Tonight the US stock market opens! Precise prediction of ETH trend—don’t step into traps!

Hi everyone tonight, I’m Budu! As of the time of this post, ETH has been weakening continuously during the day. The latest price is around 2180, with an intraday drop of more than 3%. The 24-hour high and low are 2270 and 2162 respectively. Trading volume is up 18% compared with yesterday. Bearish sentiment in the market is concentratedly releasing, and you’re now completely in a “waiting-and-watching mode anchored to US stocks.” Tonight at 21:30, the US stock market opens—that’s the key battle to determine whether ETH’s short-term selloff can stop!

First, let’s talk about the core logic: In the early hours, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March meeting. Disagreements among officials about rate cuts and rate hikes have intensified. The expectation of a rate cut in June has basically fallen through. Currently, Nasdaq 100 futures are down slightly 0.2% in the pre-market, while S&P 500 futures are seeing narrow-range fluctuations. Although US stocks had a violent rebound last night, with the Middle East situation layered with inflation concerns, tonight US stocks will most likely trade with differentiation and volatility, making it hard to get a strong one-way rebound. In recent times, ETH’s correlation with the Nasdaq has remained stable above 0.6. The risk appetite of US stocks is the absolute indicator for ETH tonight’s direction.

Technically speaking, ETH on the 4-hour timeframe has broken below the key support at 2200. The strong support below is in the 2150-2130 range—this is the bottom line that previous bulls defended. The first resistance overhead is 2220, and the strong resistance zone is 2250-2275. This is the dense area where positions trapped between today’s opening price and yesterday’s high are concentrated. Without additional incremental capital entering from the US stock market, relying solely on existing capital in the crypto space is simply unable to recover the lost ground.

Tonight, I’ll give you two clear predictions: If, after the US stock market opens, the Nasdaq holds steady above 22600 points and technology stocks collectively recover, ETH will rebound accordingly to test the 2220-2250U resistance level. If the Nasdaq breaks below the 22500-point level and weakens, ETH will inevitably test the lows again; in an extreme case, it will test the 2100U integer level’s strong support.

On the execution rules, there are no exceptions:
Before the open, never heavily bet on direction—conservative traders wait until the direction is clear, then follow through.

• Conservative: Wait for a pullback into the strong support zone of 2100-2130, build positions in batches, keep position size to no more than 30%, set the stop-loss at 2080, and first look to the 2220-2250 resistance level as the target.

• Aggressive: Test long positions with a small allocation in the 2160-2180 range, with a strictly set stop-loss at 2130. If the rebound fails to break 2220, take profit decisively—move fast in and out, don’t linger.

• DCA believers: Ignore short-term up or down moves, start weekly DCA, smooth out your average cost, and bet on the long-term value upside of ETH amid changes in the geopolitical landscape.

It needs to be emphasized that the crypto market is extremely high risk. The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Before you make any trades, you must fully understand market risks, do a good job of capital management, and never blindly follow the crowd or take positions at heavy weight.
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