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Gold rebounded last night #XAU
$4800 just barely touched it, didn't stabilize. But you might ask: Didn't the US and Iran say they would cease fire? Why is gold still rising amid geopolitical easing? The reason is simple:
First, when oil prices surged previously, many funds were forced to sell gold to cover margin calls. Now, with the ceasefire, oil prices have fallen, liquidity pressures are easing, and gold's rebound is normal.
Second, don't get too excited—this is only a two-week ceasefire agreement. On April 10th, the US and Iran will have formal talks in Islamabad to discuss sanctions relief and military deployment arrangements. These core issues haven't been addressed yet. They could turn hostile again at any time after two weeks.
Third, although oil prices have fallen, Brent crude oil is still at a high level $140 . The transmission of energy prices to CPI has just begun, and the inflation stagflation pressure hasn't disappeared. So the current situation is: the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates (bearish) vs. stagflation risks + central banks continuing to buy (bullish). In the short term, sentiment; in the medium to long term, central banks. Technically, stabilizing above 4800, the next target is 5000, #GoldTrading