Just been watching the whale movements this past week and the pattern is getting pretty clear. Those big holders loaded up hard during the Iran panic in late February when BTC was in the $62-69K range, but here's the thing — they've already dumped about 66% of those positions since we hit $74K. Meanwhile retail is still accumulating as price dipped back below $70K. That's textbook correction behavior.

The data is actually pretty bearish if you look at it. Around 43% of all bitcoin supply is sitting underwater right now, which means every time we rally, we hit a wall of people just trying to break even. That's exactly what happened at $74K — whales taking profits plus bagholders exiting at cost basis. Fear and Greed hit 12 on Saturday, one of the lowest readings since October. We've been bouncing between $60K and $74K for weeks with nothing to show for it on a monthly basis.

So here's the crossroads: either the selling pressure exhausts, underwater supply gets absorbed, and we break above $74K for real. Or retail runs out of capital and we retest $60K. The whale behavior this week is definitely pointing toward the second scenario. Current price sitting around $71.5K but the big money seems positioned for a deeper test. Just my read on what the smart money is actually doing versus what we're seeing on the surface.