Short-term with $BTC, from a macro news perspective, the market is heavily influenced by tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The most likely scenario is: escalating tensions – pausing negotiations – tensions rise again – then sitting back at the bargaining table. In between are tough statements, threats, and sudden political “U-turns.”

In such a context, Bitcoin’s movements almost instantly react to headlines:
• Conflict arises → market drops sharply
• Pause, cooling off → price rebounds
• During negotiations → sideways movement, liquidity dries up
• Negotiation breakdown → panic selling
• Unexpected signals of softness → short squeeze, sudden surge
In other words, in the short term, the market is almost “news-driven.” Technical analysis at this point only plays a secondary role because a single tweet or an unexpected statement can break the entire previous structure.
For most retail investors, trading contracts in such an environment is extremely risky. Large volatility, rapid response, and liquidity that can be wiped out from both ends. If you still want to participate, the mandatory steps are:
• Reduce leverage
• Strictly control positions
• Always prepare the worst-case scenario
If you lack information advantages and strong discipline, sometimes staying on the sidelines is the smartest choice.
The market always offers opportunities ahead. Money can always be made, but poor risk management can quickly wipe out your account.