Unconventional Viewpoint: Why Can't HYPE Double?🧵

I know this article will lose followers and even offend many friends in the industry once published. After all, now almost everyone in CT (Crypto Twitter) is a Hype maxi. But I’m not writing this to be bearish; I want to give everyone a warning amid the frenzy: The current FDV of 40 billion for HYPE has really exhausted its future potential.
Straight to the point: Based on $40, I see no possibility of HYPE doubling. In the long term, its fair price range should be below $80.
Why? Here are some cold thoughts that are being selectively ignored:
1️⃣ 75% of tokens are unvested = 3x supply ceiling. HYPE’s current FDV is $40 billion, but only 25% is circulating. By 2028, you will face huge selling pressure. Compare with traditional financial giants:
Nasdaq: historical peak market cap of $57 billion (a double of HYPE would surpass it).
CME (the world’s largest derivatives exchange): historical peak of $118 billion. If you think HYPE can double, you’re essentially betting on an unregulated perpetual contract exchange that can rival or surpass CME, which has a 130-year regulatory moat and an annual trading volume measured in “trillions.” Is that reasonable?
2️⃣ Who are the “marginal buyers” taking the bag?
Retail: Everyone knows HYPE is a good project, which precisely indicates it no longer has Alpha.
Institutions: Would Wall Street hedge funds buy a project without KYC, relying on regulatory arbitrage for growth? Even if they do, their valuation anchor is Nasdaq. Once it reaches an $80 billion market cap, will LPs allow fund managers to hold without cashing out and challenge CME’s dominance?
3️⃣ Extremely serious “key person risk.” (Key Man Risk)Hyperliquid’s team of 11 is highly elite but also extremely insular. Jeff Yan is the sole soul and technical pillar. No publicly known co-founders, no succession plan, no governance oversight. In today’s hacking era, this “single point of failure” is a huge invisible bomb for a protocol processing hundreds of billions of dollars daily.
4️⃣ The “player” attribute of crypto traders. Blockchain’s interoperability means liquidity has no loyalty. When HYPE’s upward slope flattens, profit-seeking capital will immediately rotate to the next 10x target. Network effects in the crypto space are actually very fragile.
If you want to hold long-term, isn’t 100% circulating and non-fungible BTC more attractive? Just maintaining the current price of HYPE requires future buy-ins three times the current volume to hedge the unlock. If you’re aiming for 10x, it’s better to look at Meme coins that have fallen 90% but have Lindy effects, rather than taking a position in an asset with a $40 billion FDV and all the top influencers shouting buy.
Those KOLs who made money from HYPE are indeed calling the shots, but will they add to their positions now? If they don’t buy, who provides the exit liquidity?
Stay sober. 🥂
#Hyperliquid #HYPE #CryptoTrading #Web3