The strategy provided in the morning has already become invalid in today's sharply rising market, although the long position strategy remains effective but requires adjustment.

1. Current Market Status: Late stage of short squeeze, bulls are taking the initiative

In the past 24 hours, BTC surged from $70,500 to a high of $74,900, ETH from $2,174 to a high of $2,393. This is a typical "short squeeze rebound":

· Liquidation Data: Approximately $208 million in short positions were liquidated across the entire network in the past 24 hours, 2.3 times the long liquidations; long liquidations were only about $90.72 million. Statistics show short liquidations exceeded $440 million, accounting for 81% of total liquidations.
· Funding Rate: Before the weekend, Bitcoin's funding rate has turned negative for a sustained period, indicating heavily crowded short positions. As the price broke through $74,000, the funding rates on mainstream CEX/DEXs have returned to neutral, significantly reducing short-selling sentiment. This means the key driver of "crowded shorts" is waning.
· Whale Activity: Hyperliquid whales have closed long positions at high prices, with five whales closing long positions worth about $17.78 million within half an hour.

2. Why did the morning's strategy fail?

| Strategy | Morning Entry Point | Current Price | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Short | $74,800 - $75,200 | $74,300 - $74,900 | Failed: Price has entered the lower end of resistance zone, but the short squeeze momentum has not fully released; counter-trend shorting carries high risk |
| BTC Long | $72,500 - $73,000 | $74,300+ | Corrected: The pullback entry point was not reached, missing this round of gains; need to wait for new retracement levels |
| ETH Short | $2,390 - $2,420 | $2,350 - $2,393 | Failed: Price is testing previous high, but short liquidation has not ended; avoid contrarian trades on the left side |
| ETH Long | $2,250 - $2,280 | $2,350+ | Corrected: Only briefly touched before rising above $2,350; the low-long window has closed |

3. Adjusted Trading Recommendations

| Asset | Direction | Entry Reference | Take Profit Targets | Stop Loss Reference | Core Logic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Long | $72,800 - $73,300 (pullback stabilization) | $74,800 → $75,500 → $76,500 | $72,200 | Short squeeze not fully over; after breaking previous high, look for higher levels |
| BTC | Short | Not recommended — | — | The risk of counter-trend shorting during a squeeze is very high; wait for clear top signals |
| ETH | Long | $2,280 - $2,320 (pullback stabilization) | $2,400 → $2,450 → $2,500 | $2,250 | Continuous inflow of spot ETFs; ETH outperformed BTC in gains, market risk appetite expanding |
| ETH | Short | Not recommended — | — | Funding rates have returned to neutral, decreasing short crowding; wait for right-side signals |

Technical References:

· BTC: Key resistance at $75,000 psychological level and $76,016 (breaking this opens an upward channel), key support at $72,000-$73,000; breaking below may lead to a pullback to $68,000-$69,000.
· ETH: Resistance at $2,400-$2,420 (previous high area), support at $2,250-$2,280.

4. Core Risk Warnings

1. Geopolitical news remains the biggest variable: The second round of US-Iran negotiations may be held in Islamabad on April 16. Any news about progress or breakdown will trigger intense volatility; stay alert to news updates.
2. Declining short crowding and weakening squeeze momentum: Funding rates have normalized, many shorts have been liquidated. Future upward moves require new buying support rather than purely relying on short squeezes.
3. Low liquidity amplifies volatility: Market makers are reducing exposure due to geopolitical risk decline, market depth is poor, so light positions are advisable.
4. Inflationary pressures suppress macro environment: US Treasury Secretary Yellen explicitly stated that the Federal Reserve should "wait and see" before cutting rates. The probability of rate cuts in the first half of the year is essentially ruled out, and the high-interest-rate environment creates structural suppression on risk assets.

⚠️ This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The current market is driven by news, reducing the effectiveness of technical analysis. Be sure to set strict stop-losses. $BTC