ETH Evening:

1. ETH Macro Trend Analysis: The Battle Between Strong Expectations and Weak Reality

1. News Perspective: Liquidity Reflows During the Macro "Honeymoon" Period
Currently, market sentiment has significantly warmed driven by macro factors. The rising expectations of a ceasefire between the US and Iran have directly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, leading funds to flow back from safe-haven assets into the crypto market. Meanwhile, easing US inflation data has strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts this year, supporting risk asset valuations. Against this backdrop, ETH has shown greater price elasticity, benefiting from over $43 billion in leveraged liquidations and continuous ETF inflows, with clear capital rotation effects.

2. Technical Perspective: Bottoming Structure Established but Facing "High-Pressure Zone" Test
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart has broken through the bottom consolidation zone and is above the EMA moving averages, showing a bullish alignment. However, the current price has already touched the key resistance lower boundary of the macro descending wedge. Volume did not continue to expand after the breakout, indicating insufficient chasing of the high, and the 4-hour RSI has entered overbought territory, suggesting a technical pullback is needed. Overall, volatility has compressed to an extreme and is now releasing upward; although the direction is clear, the process will inevitably involve intense fluctuations.

3. Key Support and Resistance (Spot)

· First Resistance (High-Pressure Zone): $2,400 - $2,450
· This is a double resistance level at the integer mark and the dense trading zone on the previous daily chart, also corresponding to the macro Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level.
· Core Resistance (Bull-Bear Divide): $2,530
· To fully reverse the downtrend, volume must push above this level; otherwise, it remains a rebound within a downtrend.
· First Support (Pullback Buying Point): $2,300
· This is the dense chip zone after the breakout and the position of the 4-hour MA20, serving as the lifeline for bulls’ defense.
· Bullish Bottom Line: $2,245
· Falling below this level would mean the 4-hour breakout structure has failed, and the strategy should be immediately paused.

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2. Specific Trading Ideas and Strategies

Given that macro uncertainties have temporarily receded but technical pressure remains strong, a "breakout confirmation followed by a pullback" left-side layout strategy is recommended, abandoning chasing highs and aiming for high risk-reward ratios.

Strategy Preference: Cautiously bullish, mainly low buy-in, reduce positions at key resistance levels

1. Spot Trading Strategy

· Entry Range: $2,280 - $2,320
· Wait for the 4-hour price to pull back into this zone, observe for lower shadows or stabilization signals on candles before entering in batches.
· Position Management: 40% of total
· Do not go full position now; keep funds ready for sudden macro changes (such as the April 22 negotiations).
· Target Levels: First target $2,420 (reduce 30%), second target $2,520.

2. Futures Trading Strategy

A. Low Buy Strategy (Main Strategy)

· Entry Zone: $2,280 - $2,310
· Stop Loss (SL): $2,240 (about -2.5%)
· Strictly stop below the structural breakdown point; even taking a loss confirms market weakness.
· Take Profit (TP): TP1: $2,420 / TP2: $2,520
· Position: 2x leverage, 15% of total capital
· High volatility environment, avoid high leverage.

B. Breakout Strategy (Backup)

· Entry Conditions: Price on the 4-hour chart breaks above $2,450 with volume and pulls back without breaking below.
· Entry Zone: $2,455 - $2,470
· Stop Loss: $2,420
· Target Levels: $2,520 - $2,550
· Logic: Only when fully above $2,450 will the bearish structure loosen, making entry more certain.

C. Risk Control Tips

· Pay close attention to the final results of the US-Iran negotiations around April 22; if the situation fluctuates, all long positions should be immediately hedged or exited. #WCTC交易赛瓜分800万USDT $ETH