Recently, on-chain Bitcoin data has become quite interesting. The so-called whales are those large holders who own a significant amount of Bitcoin, typically wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC. The buying and selling behavior of these whales often reflects the true market trend.

Last week, I noticed an intriguing phenomenon. From February 23rd to early March, Bitcoin fluctuated between $62,900 and $69,600, exactly during the panic sell-off triggered by the Iran conflict and the subsequent rebound. During this period, whales were aggressively accumulating, seemingly trying to buy low. But when Bitcoin rebounded to $74,000 on March 5th, these whales suddenly started reducing their holdings, selling off 66% of their newly acquired positions within just a few days.

What about retail investors? They began buying when Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 again. According to on-chain analysis firm Santiment, this is a classic warning signal—when retail investors chase the rebound, while whales are unloading, it usually indicates that this upward move is still far from over and may be due for a correction.

The current situation is indeed a bit uncomfortable. According to Glassnode data, about 43% of Bitcoin holders are now in a loss. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 12, which is in the extreme fear zone. This means that every time the price rebounds near $74,000, a large number of trapped holders want to cut losses, creating strong selling pressure.

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 in February to $74,000 in March, but now has fallen back to around $68,000. The two-month rise and fall essentially offset each other. This high volatility without net progress usually indicates that the market is digesting disagreements. Either whales’ sell-offs will be absorbed, allowing Bitcoin to break through $74,000 and continue higher; or retail buying power will dry up, and the price will really fall back to test the $60,000 support. Based on whales’ reduction of holdings this week, it seems they are more optimistic about the latter scenario.