The escalation of tensions in the Middle East poses serious risks to the crypto market, and Bitcoin remains under pressure as the only liquid asset in its class amid this uncertainty. Currently trading around $74,000, Bitcoin appears somewhat stable due to low liquidity over the weekend, but much heavier waves could be seen at the opening of traditional markets on Monday morning.

A short time ago, Israel's attack on Iran turned into one of the broadest regional conflicts in decades, as Iran retaliated against U.S. bases across the Gulf with missiles and drones. Targets included Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Dubai, while President Trump described the operations as major combat actions targeting Iran’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. This is not just a limited bilateral conflict but a real regional war touching the planet’s most economically sensitive area.

Bitcoin’s true test will begin when Monday arrives. Since stocks, oil, and bonds are still closed, the only major liquid asset traded on Saturday afternoon is Bitcoin, which tends to absorb the first wave of geopolitical sell-offs entirely. If traditional markets open sharply, portfolio managers will simultaneously reduce risk across all asset classes, and Bitcoin could see a second wave of selling. This could potentially push the price down to $60,000 or below.

Looking at past Middle East tension periods, there is a pattern: Bitcoin drops initially in shock, then recovers after traditional markets digest the news. The retaliatory attacks in Iran in April 2025 and the tensions in 2020 developed in this way. But this time, establishing a limiting thesis is much more difficult. Missile attacks reached Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain. If the conflict expands, oil prices will rise, triggering a global risk-off and potentially causing much deeper losses in Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin has not been digital gold but has traded as a risk asset. Cryptocurrency is not a safe haven; rather, it is a class of assets sold during economic uncertainty. The $60,000 support level protected on February 5 has now become the next line of defense, and this time it will be tested under much harsher conditions than margin liquidations.

On the XRP side, interesting developments are happening. The integration of XRP into Rakuten’s payment app for its 44 million users opens new doors for real-world use in Japan. XRP can be spent as a payment and earned through loyalty points. Despite strong trading volume and whale accumulation, XRP has not yet escaped the broader downtrend and has not confirmed a sustained bullish reversal.