#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

If SpaceX's final IPO price is below $590, it will mainly face direct accounting losses and opportunity cost losses, and these types of pre-IPO certificates usually do not have a principal protection mechanism.

Direct Loss Risks

Principal Shrinkage: These certificates (such as preSPAX) are typically designed to mirror the actual stock price 1:1. If the IPO is priced at $500, your asset value will also be anchored at $500, resulting in a direct loss of 15.2% compared to the $590 cost price.

No Guarantee Mechanism: The platform (such as Republic or Gate) only promises to distribute profits proportionally and does not guarantee a "floor" or "buyback." If the stock price falls below the cost line, the loss must be borne by you.

Market and Liquidity Risks

Secondary Market Price Collapse: During the wait for the IPO, if market expectations anticipate a final price below $590, the trading price of the certificates in the secondary market will usually decline in advance, forcing you to accept losses even if you want to sell early to cut losses.

Overvaluation Correction Pressure: The current valuation given by the pre-IPO market (implying $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion) has already seriously overstretched expectations. Once the listing occurs and market sentiment cools or Elon Musk's integration of xAI raises concerns, the IPO price could easily be below the current private placement valuation.

In simple terms, this is essentially a bet that SpaceX's listing will maintain a "super-high price expectation." If the market doesn't buy it, those who subscribed at a high premium will be left holding the bag.