4.15 BTC Evening Market Analysis

I. Logical Support

1. Technical: 4-hour high-level oscillation; 74,000-74,200 is strong support based on ETF costs; 75,000-75,500 is a dense trapped zone. RSI is approaching overbought, and MACD shows a top-side divergence, indicating bullish momentum is weakening.
2. Capital: Spot ETF has a slight net inflow, but derivatives funding is in a wait-and-see mode. Trading volume shrinks in the early morning, and the main force has no intention to push the market.
3. Time Pattern: 10 PM to 3 AM is a quiet period in the Asia-Pacific session; it tends to trigger narrow-range shakeouts, making it difficult to break 75,500 and difficult to drop below 73,800.

II. Trend Qualitative Assessment

The market is oscillating at high levels but leaning bullish. In the early morning it is mainly a tug-of-war within a range; after a slight spike up, it falls back and consolidates.
The bullish structure has not been broken, but momentum is insufficient. 74,403 is the critical point; only a high-volume break above 75,000 would suggest continuation; otherwise it will keep oscillating between 73,800 and 75,200.

III. Practical Trading Targets

- Longs (conservative): Buy after a pullback to 73,900-74,100 stabilizes
Take profit: 75,000 → 75,400
- Shorts (aggressive): Short on resistance during a rebound at 75,100-75,300
Take profit: 74,300 → 73,900
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