#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.15 Hormuz blockade lands! Bitcoin stabilizes above 74,000!

At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13, the Strait of Hormuz was fully sealed off. According to common sense deduction, this should be a signal for the crypto market to decline again—geopolitical crisis escalation, energy supply interruption risks, and rising global risk aversion. But the actual market trend is completely opposite.
　　Bitcoin did not fall but rose after the curfew took effect, reaching a high of $76,063 yesterday, the highest in four weeks, and today morning it stabilized at $74,167. Ethereum also started to retrace from its high of $2,417. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $74,258, and Ethereum at $2,328. Along with this rebound, a total of $434 million was liquidated involving 180k traders. The market did not collapse because of the curfew; instead, it used the blood of shorts to complete a short squeeze.
　　The curfew was not an unexpected black swan; Trump announced the plan on Sunday, April 12, and the market had already digested it two days in advance: panic selling on Sunday, continued consolidation on Monday, and when the curfew officially took effect on Tuesday, the selling pressure was exhausted. This is textbook【sell the rumor, buy the news】fear pricing—before the event occurs, it is already priced in; after the event lands, it becomes a buying opportunity.
　　

　　From Fibonacci levels, the current price is stuck at the key 0.382 level, around 74,100. After rising from 70,455 to 75,985, it is now retracing to near 0.382, about 73,873, oscillating within this range. It cannot break above 0.236 at 74,680 nor below 0.5 at 73,220. This is a typical strong sideways consolidation, with the main force clearly accumulating and rotating here. As long as it does not break below 0.5, the overall trend remains bullish.
　　Looking at the BOLL indicator, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has flattened, and the price is repeatedly moving around the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, indicating the market is entering a phase of choosing direction. The price hugging the middle band suggests a temporary balance between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the lower band is rising steadily, meaning support below is gradually strengthening. So, this is not a sign of turning bearish but a buildup for a future move.
　　Regarding MACD, although a death cross appeared at high levels, the bearish momentum has not increased significantly. The green histogram bars on MACD have not expanded but are shrinking. What does this indicate? It suggests that the current decline is just a correction, not the main downtrend. As long as there is no second surge in volume to push prices lower, the MACD pattern looks more like a shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
　　The KDJ indicator shows that the K and D values are turning upward again near 50, with the J value rising especially noticeably. This is a standard short-term rebound signal.
Now is not a decline but a sideways consolidation after a rise.
　　For the next move, if the price does not fall below 73,200 (the 0.5 level), the outlook remains for sideways upward movement. If it can stabilize above 74,600 at the 0.236 level, it is very likely to challenge the previous high of 75,900. If it breaks through 75,900, the next step is to see if a new high can be made.
Key levels
Strong support at 73,200, short-term support at 73,800, resistance at 74,600, and strong resistance at 75,900.
Trading strategy
As long as the retracement does not break below the 0.5 level, the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. If it breaks through 74,600, go long accordingly. If it falls below 73,200, then retreat in the short term and wait and see.