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As October draws to a close, the market dynamics for the next two months will be even more intriguing. Currently, there is a staggering 96.3% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in November. This round of the Bull Market is different from the past, with market differentiation becoming more apparent. Previous rapid pumps seem to have peaked, and we are now entering an adjustment phase. The strong performance in the first half of the market has begun to weaken, and subsequent rises may be more gradual, gradually digesting the previous gains, reflecting changes in capital structure. The early strong pumps were mainly driven by the rapid inflow of regular capital, but now the market is gradually entering a consolidation phase. Especially in the AltCoin field, there is a lack of Liquidity, and zone rotation is slowing down, making it difficult to sustain momentum. The biggest problem in the current market is the lack of two core factors: Liquidity and hotspots. In fact, Liquidity is crucial, as hotspots can be created through guidance. Once Liquidity is restored, market sentiment and hotspots will become active, forming a virtuous cycle. The key in the future is how to activate market Liquidity, which will affect the overall trend of the market. As the election approaches, if Liquidity and hotspots appear simultaneously, the market performance in November will be very much anticipated!
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After BTC was pressured at the high point of 68748, it fell below the line continuously yesterday morning, with the lowest point reaching 65543 and rebounding. The market's short sentiment after the bottoming out was relatively weak, and the daily candlestick overall shows a rising trend. Although there were several small retracements in between, the problem is not significant and does not affect the overall trend for the time being. Specifically, we need to see the release situation on Sunday night and next week. I think the trend of the market in the next few days will certainly continue to warm up. Currently, the four-hour conversion zone is in the 67500 area. In the short term, short positions can be taken when the rebound touches this area, and the support below first looks at the 66000-66200 area. If it falls back to this position, it is more suitable for long positions. If there is a second rebound, it will break the previous high point. Therefore, once it breaks through the high point next Monday, it will probably reach 70000 to the previous high!
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Regarding ETH, the recent weak pullback has basically wiped out the gains from the previous catch-up to 2600, and returned to the trend of weak pullback. In the past six months, whenever the overall market pulls back, ETH is always the first to take the hit, with little difference in decline compared to other altcoins, which also indicates that its resilience is not as good as before. ETH is no longer the same as before, and as the market changes rapidly, we need to adjust our standards for reviewing assets accordingly. In the short term, it's better to follow the rhythm of the overall market and get on board with low positions during the pullback. Short positions may continue to spread, but considering that there are many resistance indicators above ETH, caution is still necessary. You can consider opening a short position only when the intraday market breaks through with strong momentum.