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When I woke up, something surprising happened that puzzled investors.
The market's probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has skyrocketed to 90%, but the financial market has not ushered in a frenzy: $BTC
The dollar rose, while gold and BTC fell in the closing session, and the US stock market saw ups and downs. All the changes happened in the last few hours before the closing bell, when four Fed officials gave speeches and poured cold water on the world.
* Cleveland Fed President Harker said that policymakers are "at or near" the stage where they should slow down the pace of rate cuts, as the economy is strong and inflation remains high (implying a turning point to pause rate cuts).
* Federal Reserve Chairman Bowman said that the progress in combating inflation may have stalled, and the rate cut needs to be cautiously promoted (implying: inflation is very high, do not easily cut interest rates again).
* Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the labor market still appears stable, and he refused to disclose whether he intends to support a rate cut at the December meeting (implying that there is no urgency for a rate cut).
* San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the Fed will wait and assess the net impact of the multiple policies to be introduced by the incoming government before adjusting monetary policy (meaning: wait until Trump takes office before making a judgment).
First, the timing of their speech is crucial - after the nonfarm data and before the quiet period - that is, this is their final message to the market before the December meeting.
Secondly, the four people have different perspectives in their speeches, but one thing in common is that no one openly supports the rate cut in December. From the tone of the Federal Reserve, it is possible that there will be a rate cut in December, or it may not happen.
Market expectations have been highly consistent, and the Fed has sent a cautious signal. Why is this? The Fed has issued some subtle warnings to the world, which many people did not understand.
Another point to note: the US dollar is rising. Although it is influenced by the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, one more thing to consider: the momentum of dumping is fading away (the selling pressure is approaching the end).
This December won't be calm, the financial market is facing new changes.