fall, big fall, the world falls into a terrible silence

Traders are waiting for a large number of risk events to occur. Every point, every piece of data, could be the catalyst for a game changer.
On the last trading day of the week, the global market once again witnessed a fall in everything, including the US dollar index. Unlike in the past, people are indifferent to this fall, and the noisy news media has not published any interpretation.
1. Let's take a look at the market performance:
- The US dollar fell after rising for five consecutive trading days, but still gained 0.9% for the week, closing not far from the year's high.
- The U.S. stock market experienced mutual falls, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.2% for seven consecutive trading days; the S&P 500 remained flat; and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.12%. However, if you look at the details during trading, all three major stock indexes closed with a bearish candlestick.
- Gold fell for two consecutive trading days, falling a total of $70, and the 50-day moving average was breached again.
US Treasury bonds continue to fall, with the largest weekly fall this year, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reaching 4.4%.
2. Wall Street analysts are focused on two key points, and the alarm has already sounded:
· One is whether the dollar index can close above the 107 level. If it does, it means a new round of rally. The index closed at 106.95 this week, leaving the suspense to next week.
Another point is whether the 10-year Treasury yield can reach 4.5%, which is already close.
The 107 level of the dollar (leading to further deterioration of global capital flows), coupled with a 4.5% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds (raising global financing costs), will be a "toxic combination" for global investors, posing further risks of selling in global markets.
3. This time, there is a clear reason for the fall, with a premonition that the Fed will cut interest rates next week and send a signal to pause the rate cut: even some people have a premonition that next week will be the last rate cut.
Unknown risks have unsettled the market. Before the blackout period, the Fed did not even make it clear whether it would cut interest rates in December. The market barely reached a consensus on a December rate cut through economic data, and beyond that, the market knows nothing. The pressure next week is on the Fed, and the market has no expectations for its policy statement, dot plot, economic forecasts, which means the market needs to reprice.
Every word uttered by the Federal Reserve can potentially stir up waves when it falls into the water.