Is BTCHalving, new highs, and the arrival of altcoin season the classic recipe for a Bull Market? Or is it not so?

First of all, BTC Halving reduces its issuance rate, leading to a supply shortage. After that, BTC will rise all the way to a new historical high, followed by the speculation of altcoins. Investors are more inclined to pursue higher returns, and the altcoin market is booming in this season. Shortly after the last Halving, BTC broke through the $100,000 mark, a historic milestone. However, the altcoin market has not seen a sharp rise at present.

Where is the usual rebound? Has the classic plot been disrupted? The surge of institutional capital and the liquidity squeeze caused by high interest rates, coupled with Trump's positive and bold view on cryptocurrency, have confirmed one thing: this cycle will be unlike any cycle we have seen before.

What makes this cycle different?

Each cycle has four phases: accumulation, rise, distribution, and fall. Although the mechanisms behind these phases are well known, seizing the market opportunity is one of the most recognized skills. You try to predict when we enter a specific phase to develop a trading strategy. However, despite the predictable patterns that cycles follow, we must not forget the broader market context - cryptocurrencies have undergone many changes in the past year.

Institutional capital

The increasing participation of institutional investors in the BTC market has reshaped the dynamics of the BTC market. With the emergence and growing support of cryptocurrency ETFs, BTC has become the 7th largest asset globally and a new choice for institutional investors. Increased participation from institutional investors usually brings greater price stability. However, this may not be good news for altcoins. After all, volatility and significant adjustments can redirect capital flows to altcoins. Reduced volatility means reduced potential returns flowing back into the altcoin market.