Today at 21:30 Beijing time, the US December PCE data will be released, especially the Core PCE, which is the Fed's gauge of inflation. Every time the Fed mentions 2%, they are referring to the Core PCE (annualized) reaching 2%. Therefore, the Core PCE data is important as it represents the trend of inflation in the US. The lower the Core PCE figure, the more Favourable Information it is for the market, as it may increase the number of interest rate cuts by the Fed.

This is a prerequisite, but in fact, for the Federal Reserve, inflation, labor, and the economy are all factors that need to be considered. A single month's inflation may not necessarily change the Federal Reserve's decision, and if the Federal Reserve wants to increase the number of interest rate cuts, it is probably a matter for after March. Therefore, rationally speaking, this inflation data is not significant.

After all, this thing is just data, without interpretation. Unlike Powell's speech, there may be unexpected events, but the market may not be rational, so the core PCE data will still affect the #BTC price trend in the short term, especially today is Friday, and the following weekend will be as illiquid as a bad dog. If the mood is not good today, the mood for the weekend is expected to be even worse.

In terms of the data itself, the core PCE data for last month was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and the Cleveland Fed's forecast (2.83%). The core PCE is predicted based on the core CPI and PPI, and the PPI data for December was good, so the actual value of the core PCE may be lower than or equal to the expectation.

1. Less than 2.8%, Favourable Information, the market is expected to have a positive response.
2. Equals 2.8%, not a negative factor, within market expectations, the market may also have positive feedback, after all, inflation has not increased.
3. Greater than 2.8%, exceeding market expectations, the market may have negative feedback.

But as mentioned earlier, these are all short-term data that will not have a long-term impact on investor sentiment. In addition to the core PCE data, including the monthly rate of core PCE, labor costs, etc., also play a role, but if the change is small, the impact is low. If the change is large, it may also affect the market. Of course, the core PCE (annual rate) still has the greatest influence.