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Is the Rally Sustainable Amid Ceasefire Uncertainty?
The hot topic of Gate Plaza 4/21 perfectly summarizes the market: #BitcoinBouncesBack Geopolitical fog, institutional buying, and technical resistance colliding simultaneously. On April 21st, BTC tested $76,401 intraday, closing around $76,371. This over 11% increase since the beginning of April was one of the strongest monthly performances since mid-2025.
Why now?
Geopolitical easing: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and signals from the US to release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds, coupled with a sharp drop in oil prices, boosted risk appetite. Bitcoin surpassed the $76,000 threshold on this news.
Institutional inflows: Purchases from MicroStrategy and similar financial institutions, combined with $471 million in inflows into ETFs in April, strengthened spot demand. CoinStats analysis indicates support at $74,000-$75,000 and resistance at $76,000-$81,000.
On-chain signal: The RHODL ratio shows long-term holders regaining control. While funding negative remains on Binance perpetuals, the approximately $450 million sell-off wall accumulating at $76,000 creates potential for a short squeeze.
But the picture isn't one-sided. President Trump told Bloomberg that the Iran ceasefire would "end Wednesday evening (US time) and that an extension was highly unlikely." Markets priced this statement as a risk-off, and US stocks fell.
🕵️ Where is the peak of the last rebound?
In the short term, $76,000 is not a psychological barrier, but a battleground. If we see 4-hour closes above it, liquidity clusters point to $78,000-$80,000. Bitrue analysis also suggests "70K-78K consolidation, 80K breakout indicates rapid momentum" for April.
However, the $450 million sell wall and perpetual funding that has been negative for 46 days make every rise an invitation for profit taking. My base scenario: first peak around $78,200, then a pullback to $73,700 depending on the ceasefire news. A weekly close above $81,000 is necessary for a sustained bull run.
🕵️ How to take a position before the ceasefire ends?
"One-way long" is risky when geopolitical option value is high. 🤔
🔹As long as it stays above $74,000, a spot or low-leverage long position can be maintained. Stop loss is on a 4-hour close below $73,500. For hedging, a small BTC put (April 25th expiry, $72,000 strike) or an oil long position will protect if the Strait of Hormuz closes again.
🔹Until Wednesday evening, premiums for a straddle-like structure (76K calls + 74K puts simultaneously) are still cheap, as the market is pricing in a 16.5% probability of a deal. If the news flow reverses, one side will pay.
NFTs and selective altcoins: According to Gate data, NFT volume and fan-tokens like CHZ and JST rose 7-9% in the recent rally. If BTC dominance decreases, liquidity may shift first to ETH, then to NFT infrastructures. A small basket (10% portfolio) might be sensible.
🔹Gradual selling at $76,800, $78,000, $80,500 levels, repurchasing at $74,200 on pullback. A plan instead of FOMO.
🤔 If the ceasefire doesn't extend and Trump acts on his "we will restart the bombing" rhetoric, oil will jump, BTC will initially rise with the safe-haven narrative, then face selling pressure in the liquidity crisis. Leverage above 3x may be risky this week.
✍️Bitcoin is once again playing the role of "inverse correlation" in geopolitical chess. Strait of Hormuz opened → oil fell → BTC reclaimed 76K. But Trump's "no extension" ultimatum makes the rally fragile. My game plan is simple: trade momentum above 76K, buy volatility before April 23rd, and expand the position once the direction becomes clear after the news.
What do you think?
Peak 78K or 81K?
Long or short before the ceasefire?
✍️Leave your comment and share your opinions with this hashtag at Gate Square.
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$BTC ‌