【转】Global Economic Research Update: U.S. Fiscal Crisis and Strategic Tariff Moves

Greetings, Members this is a part of the Research I was Doing .

The current U.S. fiscal situation is far more complex than what’s portrayed in the mainstream headlines. While discussions often center around the spending bill deadlock, the core issue lies in the Treasury’s liquidity crisis — simply put, there isn’t enough cash available to sustain both debt servicing and government spending.

1. Cash Flow Breakdown:

The Treasury’s available reserves mainly in the(Treasury General Account) and (Reverse Repo Facility) are rapidly depleting. This creates a scenario where the U.S. government must choose between paying (interest on treasuries) to avoid default, or funding (essential public spending) — salaries, social security, and contractor payments.

2. The Legal Constraint:
Under the (Federal Reserve Act), the Fed can’t directly fund the government. It can only perform (Quantitative Easing (QE) — buying treasuries from the market to maintain liquidity. However, this only shifts ownership of debt; the Treasury must still pay interest, whether to investors or the Fed itself.

3. Borrowing Limit & Fiscal Trap:

The debt ceiling has already been reached early in the fiscal year. Without new borrowing authorization, the Treasury relies entirely on tax inflows — insufficient for sustaining both debt obligations and spending. Raising the ceiling might offer temporary relief, but it doesn’t solve the underlying insolvency risk.

4. QE vs. Hyperinflation Risk:

While QE may provide short-term liquidity, printing money directly for government use would be illegal and catastrophic — potentially leading to (hyperinflation) similar to Zimbabwe’s experience.

5. China Factor & Trade Tactics:

Currently China fully understands the fragility of the U.S. fiscal position — and so does the (Trump administration), which is why it’s strategically leveraging the (tariff war).

翻译内容:
全球经济研究更新：美国财政危机与战略关税动向

各位会员，以下是我正在进行的研究报告部分内容。

当前美国财政状况远比主流媒体报道的更为复杂。虽然讨论常聚焦于支出法案僵局，但核心问题在于财政部流动性危机——简言之，现有资金已不足以同时维持债务偿付和政府支出。

关键要点：

1. 资金流分析：
财政部可用储备资金（主要存放于国库一般账户及逆回购工具）正在快速消耗。这形成美国政府必须在两难间抉择的局面：是支付国债利息避免违约，还是维持必要公共支出——包括薪资、社会保障与承包商款项。

2. 法律限制：
根据《联邦储备法》，美联储不得直接向政府提供资金，仅能通过量化宽松政策——从市场收购国债来维持流动性。但这仅转移债务所有权，财政部仍须支付利息，无论接收方是投资者还是美联储自身。

3. 借款限额与财政陷阱：
债务上限在本财年早期即触顶。若无新增借款授权，财政部完全依赖税收收入——这远不足以同时支撑债务偿还与财政支出。提高上限或可暂缓危机，但无法根本解决偿付能力风险。

4. QE与恶性通胀风险：
量化宽松虽可提供短期流动性，但直接印钞供政府使用属违法行为，且可能引发灾难性后果——或导致类似津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀。

5. 中国因素与贸易策略：
当前中国充分认知美国财政状况的脆弱性——特朗普政府同样清楚这点，这正是其战略性地运用关税战争的原因所在。
#TRUMP #美国实施新一轮关税措施
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